ANALYSIS There is little evidence to suggest that PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim will lose the impending Kajang by-election - the question is whether he can achieve a convincing win.

The party forced the by-election and was immediately put on the backfoot, having to justify its decision since the incumbent Lee Chin Cheh ( left ) offered no legitimate reason for vacating the state seat eight months after the 13th general election.

A casual sample of Kajang residents indicated disapproval of PKR’s political manouevring, because of the divisive nature of election campaigns in Malaysia and the expenditure on the exercise at a time when the rising cost of living is a major worry for consumers.

If a large segment of voters actually feel that the Kajang by-election is unnecessary, it would be reasonable to expect a lower turnout; and this would be disadvantageous to PKR.

In 2008, PKR's Lee Kim Sin won the seat with a 3,268-vote majority. Last May, Chin Cheh won with a 6,824 majority in the six-corner contest.

In 2008, the turnout was 79.8 percent, while last year, the turnout was 88.1 percent - an increase of 8.3 percent.

However, the percentage of voters who voted for PKR increased by only 1.3 percent. The explanation for this lies within the race-based voting pattern.

According to data obtained by Malaysiakini , PKR's share of the Malay vote in Kajang had dropped last year but its candidate was able to improve on the majority because of increased support from non-Malays.

In fact, PKR was unable to win support in all seven voting districts where Malays made up at least 70 percent of the voters. It did however secure a convincing victory in the remaining nine voting districts.

Obstacles to strategy

Assuming that all things remain equal, it will be reasonable to conclude that PKR can hope for a higher turnout rate among non-Malays, who make up 50 percent of the electorate.

There are, however, obstacles ahead.

Anwar is being touted as a replacement for Menteri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, who is a relatively popular figure with a decent approval rating based on past surveys.

Thus it would be unlikely for PKR to bring up the issue of replacing Khalid during the campaign, while Anwar would not want to portray himself as a menteri besar-in-waiting.

PKR could adopt a defensive campaign by waiting for Umno to deploy its usual race and religion arsenal, alongside its penchant for personal attacks against Anwar.

Doing so would only help distract voters from the fact that the necessity of the by-election was in question in the first place.

LEE WAY LOON is a member of the Malaysiakini team.