ANALYSIS In the opening hours of the Kajang by-election, BN leaders accused PKR candidate Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail of attempting to fish for sympathy votes, and argued that such sympathy should not be given.

However, some observers have opined that this line of rhetoric would have little traction with Kajang’s 39,278 voters, and ultimately the reversal of PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim’s acquittal in the Sodomy II appeal by the government would hurt BN’s chances of making inroads in the by-election.

Although BN had argued that it has nothing to do with the Court of Appeal decision, political analyst Khoo Kay Peng ( left ) said the Sodomy II trial has already been seen as a political trial from the very beginning.

“Whether Anwar had actually committed sodomy or not is another matter, but it is even more clear (than Sodomy I) that it is a political set-up,” Khoo said when contacted by Malaysiakini yesterday.

In comparison, he said, the Sodomy I trial was new and unexpected to Malaysian voters. Khoo believes that BN is bound to lose some middle-ground votes and find it ‘very difficult’ to win back Chinese votes.

Chinese voters make up over 40 percent of the Kajang electorate.

At a rally in Kajang yesterday, Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar dubbed Wan Azizah as Anwar’s puppet and said no sympathy should be given to her.

At the nomination centre, BN deputy chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin told reporters that the judiciary is independent and Anwar’s conviction had nothing to do with the ruling coalition.

To a question, BN information chief Ahmad Maslan confirmed that this would be one of the coalition’s campaign themes.

Why should people sympathise with Anwar?

“If it were sympathy (vote) because he was found guilty of trying to defend the people, it is a different story.

“However the decision of the three judges against him is about his case with Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan - a personal case - so why should the people sympathise?” Ahmad told reporters yesterday.

The three-member bench unanimously found Anwar guilty of sodomy last Friday and sentenced him to five years imprisonment . A stay of execution of sentence has been granted, but the country’s election law bars from contesting in Kajang.

Meanwhile, co-founder of the pollster Merdeka Center, Ibrahim Suffian, concurred that it would be difficult to convince voters that BN had nothing to do with Anwar’s conviction.

Ibrahim ( right ) said that public view of the judiciary is that it has a “mixed track record”, at best.

“It (BN’s argument that the judiciary is independent) doesn’t connect with reality. Anwar has been persecuted so many times, and people also know that police reports made by NGOs and the opposition rarely get acted on.

“Even in the media, where the opposition gets maligned by the BN-aligned media, nothing really happens unless they take it to the court, and on some occasions, they win cases,” Ibrahim told Malaysiakini.

Survey: 59 percent say by-election reasonable

He also pointed out that previous surveys, including one conducted by Universiti Malaya Centre of Democracy and Election (Umcedel), and by other political parties as well, that seem to indicate that some voters agree with BN’s campaigning that the by-election is a PKR internal affair that had been forced upon the people, but these are people already inclined to vote for BN.

The Umcedel survey had found 59 percent of Kajang voters agreeing that it is reasonable for the by-election to be held to allow Anwar to become the menteri besar of Selangor, and 53 percent felt that it is not a waste of public funds.

“My sense is that the issues put forth by BN do not seem to be going to alter the balance in their favour,” Ibrahim added.

Other issues that BN intends to campaign on, according to Ahmad, is to portray its candidate Chew Mei Fun as a person who can help bring development backed by the federal government into the constituency, and to fend off the association of BN with price hikes.

Ibrahim said BN will find this an ‘uphill task’ because a large portion of Kajang voters are from the middle class and working class, as well as people involved in small and medium enterprises.

“They are acutely aware of the problems of cost of living and problems of governance - basically corruption,” he said.

As for PKR, Ibrahim said the party seems to be campaigning more on local issues, and its biggest challenge is to show that it has a convincing plan to do better than it had in the past six years of governing Selangor.

This is particularly true in problem areas such as garbage collection and road repairs, which should have been done well in a state as rich as Selangor, he said.

PKR is slated to launch its manifesto for the Kajang by-election today, focusing on areas such as garbage collection, traffic congestion, crime and job opportunities.

Since Anwar’s conviction, it had also branded its campaign as a referendum against injustice.

As for Khoo, he opined that PKR has already fielded its best possible candidate in the race, because Wan Azizah does not have any problems with any of the factions within the party.

“Whatever problem that Anwar faces, Wan Azizah is not going to face that problem. She will be able to unite several factions within PKR behind her…

“That, I think, is going to make it a lot more difficult for BN. I don’t see the BN having any clear-cut, attractive or different kind campaign solution,” Khoo said.

PKR had won Kajang in a six-cornered fight in the general election last year, with a solid 6,824-vote majority.

The by-election is to take place on March 23, giving BN and PKR until then to improve their chances.