MH370 At the height of the search for the MH370, about 100 ships and aircraft combed through Malaysian and Vietnamese waters for signs of the missing aircraft.

 

Now, with nothing to show for, there is only one vessel still actively involved in the search some 3,000 kilometres away from where it started. And it is chugging its way back to port to fix defective sonar equipment.

 

The Chinese survey ship Zhukezen is also supported by the Chinese patrol vessel Haixun 01 and the Malaysian auxiliary ship Bunga Mas 6.

 

It has been 12 weeks since anything was seen or heard of the Boeing 777-200ER aircraft or the 239 persons on board – which was on the day it took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8 and failed to arrive at its destination in Beijing.

 

The latest disappointment for the search was on Wednesday, when the Bluefin-21 autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) finished searching an 850-square kilometre area where acoustic pings were heard in early-April, without result.

 

According to the Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC), the US-supplied drone will be arriving in port today to be “demobilised”, meaning it will be pulled away from the search operation.

 

The pings were consistent with signals emitted from beacons installed on aircraft black boxes and was previously considered to be the “best lead” to MH370’s whereabouts.

 

However, now that this lead has been discounted, the only lead remaining is the Inmarsat satellite data, and modelling of MH370’s probable flight path based on the data and characteristics of the aircraft such as speed and fuel consumption.

 

The result is a search area that in the shape of a 60,000-square kilometre arc in the South Indian Ocean that is still being refined, in international waters off Australia’s west coast. The area searched by Bluefin-21 falls within this arc.

 

'Still on track'

Despite the doubts from families and other analysts, searchers remain confident that they are still on track.

 

“What we know - what all the experts agree - is that the arc associated with the seventh handshake (with the Inmarsat satellite) is where the aircraft ran out of fuel.

 

“We're very confident that the aircraft will be found very close to that arc. The question we are now trying to review is... where on that arc is it most likely to be?” the Associated Press quoted the Australian Transport Safety Bureau chief Martin Dolan as saying yesterday.

 

He added that he is “cautiously optimistic” that the aircraft will be found.

 

The Australians have budgeted AU$89.9 million (RM269 million) over the next two years, but there is no clear indication how much will the search ultimately cost, or how much will it cost Malaysia.

 

However, the final figure is likely to far eclipse the previous record holder Air France flight 447 for the most expensive search in aviation history.

 

The two-year search for AF447 from 2009 cost US$40 million (RM129 million), covering 17,240 square kilometres of the Atlantic Ocean in five search phases.

 

In the current phase of the search, the ship Zhukezhen is supposed to survey the sea floor and pave the way for another round of underwater search. Another ship contracted by the Australian government will also join the mapping effort in a few weeks.

 

“The bathymetric survey will provide a map of the underwater search zone, charting the contours, depths and hardness of the ocean floor.

 

“While the ocean depth of the search zone is understood to be between (1,000 metres) and 6,000 (metres), we currently have very limited knowledge of the sea floor terrain facing the underwater search operation,” said the ATSB in a fact sheet released on Monday.

 

The data will go toward the planning for the next phase of underwater search, which the ATSB expects to commence in August will take up to 12 months to complete, possibly covering entire 60,000 square kilometre area.

 

Australia will be contracting a civilian contractor for the search via open tender, although other countries are expected to contribute their resources as well, including a towed sonar and a remotely operated vehicle from Malaysia.

 

Fresh efforts

 

In the meantime, the long and expensive search for MH370 is spurring fresh efforts to improve flight tracking and search and rescue efforts.

 

Already, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has held meetings to discuss global flight tracking. Both of these are UN agencies.

 

However, it remains to be seen how far the momentum will carry the reforms, which often result in arguments between regulators, airlines and crew about safety, cost, and workplace privacy.

 

“Some of the proposals (made by AF447’s investigators) that experts say might have helped in a case like MH370, remain bogged down in talks among affected parties, with no timetable for putting them into effect,” noted a Reuters report.

 

The only recommendation adopted was to extend the battery life of black box pingers from 30 days to 90 days, but the rule has yet to come into force.

 

Until MH370’s black box is found and gives up its secrets however, there will be no way to know what led to its sudden diversion from its original course, or how to prevent another such incident.