Data from the 13th general election (GE13) does not support the claim that PAS has lost Malay support because of cooperation with Pakatan Rakyat allies, said pollster Ibrahim Suffian.

 

“A lot of the discussion happening since GE13 has been about whether PAS has lost the Malay vote? Did their partnership with parties like the DAP and PKR cost them support among the Malays?

 

“The data doesn’t particularly show that information. It does not support that kind of presumption,” he told a conference on the GE13 in Kuala Lumpur today.

 

Ibrahim ( photo ) said that while Malay support for the Islamist party had indeed dropped by 1.3 percent compared to the general election before, the fall occurred in states like Kedah and Perak where poor administration of the state was the more likely culprit for the loss of support.

 

In most states, he said Malay support for PAS compared to Umno had changed little with the exception of Terengganu, where PAS has made inroads.

"It just seems to indicate that Malay voters are also rational and performance-oriented. In states where they perceive that the state government is doing very well, they reward the state government.

"In states where they perceive that the state government is not doing very well, they punish the incumbent party. They are behaving like voters anywhere else in the world," he said.

 

In contrast, PAS’ overall share of the popular vote had actually increased by 1.2 percent compared to GE12, buoyed by non-Malay support.

PKR loss a lot of Malay votes

 

PAS representation in Parliament, however, had dropped by two seats in the aftermath of GE13 even as its allies PKR and DAP won more seats.

 

This has prompted talk that PAS is losing support amongst  the Malay electorate, including speculation that the party’s aggressive push for its hudud agenda is a move to regain those votes at the cost of the non-Malay vote.

Meanwhile, Ibrahim said PAS' ally PKR had actually lost more Malay votes than the Islamist party - a total of 6.6 percent - but its overall support rose by 1.5 percent, again due to an increase in non-Malay vote.

He attributed this to the fact that PKR's infighting was in full display to the public, and that the party’s de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim failed to realise his much touted attempt to wrest control of the parliament through defections from BN.

As for Umno, Ibrahim said its goodies and fiery rhetoric of race and religion only increased its Malay support by 1.5 percent, mainly from the older age groups.

On the other hand, this had cost the party 20 percent of the Chinese vote and six percent of the Indian vote. Overall, its loss of the popular vote amounted to four percent.