Will the outcome of the latest PAS muktamar lead to a repeat of the occurrence faced by the opposition in the 2004 election?

BN achieved its most spectacular results in the 2004 general election but the polls saw PAS retaining only seven of its 27 seats.

Even PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang lost his parliamentary seat. This was a complete reversal from the 1999 general election which saw many so-called 'Islamic' candidates winning most of their seats they contested in Malay areas.

PAS is now experimenting with the hudud agenda just like the Hadi-Haron Din alliance which had tested the 'Islamic state' manifesto at the 2004 general election.

Coupled with pressure from the government with arrests under the Internal Security Act (ISA) in 2001 which crippled the then Alternative Front and  followed by former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s resignation, PAS lost badly in 2004 even though it touted the hudud and Islamic state agenda.

PAS and Pakatan Rakyat will see the re-occurrence of such a scenario – the opposition faring badly - if Mahathir manages to replace Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak with a new prime minister 'aided' by a clampdown  under the Sedition Act which has already seen arrests of numerous opposition leaders.

Umno, on the other hand, are trying to fish for PAS members purportedly to boost their own Islamic credentials and this, too, will undermine the opposition coalition.

The current situation, and what direction PAS takes post-muktamar, will set the stage for whether PAS and the Pakatan will be weakened and eventually crippled in the run-up to and after the 14th general election.

'Unity government' idealism

There is also the possibility that PAS may sway towards Umno lured by the 'unity government' dream and this trend can be seen by the emergence of the now contentious 'sever ties with DAP' motion which was passed without debate at the muktamar.

It should be noted that PAS efforts to collaborate with Umno have been debated upon by the PAS ulama wing ever since Pakatan Rakyat’s formidable victory in 2008.

Whether Hadi ( photo ) is directly involved or otherwise with this 'unity government' idealism, his advisers (young religious scholars whom I call the neo-Taliban) play an important role and this included the purging of progressives from the party as seen during last week's PAS elections

Now, the new party leadership which comprises only of those from the ulama faction, have to think of 'new' collaborations.

It is as if PAS wants to go back to the time to 1990 which saw two opposition coalitions - the Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah (APU) and the Gagasan Rakyat.

It would seem that PAS is imagining PKR and jailed PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim as a link to two possible coalitions, just like how Semangat 46's Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah had headed both the APU and Gagasan Rakyat.

FATHI ARIS OMAR is former chief editor of Malaysiakini .