COMMENT Although it is a long way to the next general election, the current developments we are seeing will, in my opinion, be decisive in shaping the outcome and winner of the next election.

Firstly, we have seen a lot of adverse publicity given to the break-up of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

Pro-BN observers and also some disillusioned opposition supporters are claiming this is dealing a death blow to the opposition's election hopes. But is this so? I beg to differ from them.

What is happening to Pakatan is actually a blessing in disguise for them. In fact, it is a big blessing.

This is because, if we look at the political configuration closely, it is not that the opposition coalition is breaking up. It is the hardline faction of PAS that is splitting from the rest of Pakatan.

This faction wants to chart a future for the country based on Islamic law and a more rigid Islamic state. But can they succeed?

Well, despite the conservative candidates sweeping all the leadership positions in the recent PAS elections, deep down I am sure that they realise that they represent only a minority of the Malay Muslim population.

My reading is that the majority of Muslims do not want a more fundamentalist Islamic society.

They may have concerns about some aspects of modern life and western values. But even the less educated among them know what has been happening in fundamentalist Islamic nations.

How can preachers govern?

Without any exception, all the Muslims in countries like Syria, Yemen, Iran, Iraq, etc, are seeing violence because their states have all gone downhill; their economies have gone kaput; their educated and best people have migrated and the ordinary people and middle class have suffered the most.

In this 21st Century, how can you have preachers and religious interpreters of a holy book run a government based on their interpretation of the Quran?

Can these ulama claim that they are the right people to lead the country when it is clear that they are only fit to lead religious ceremonies and institutions, and no more? They may be able to fool some uneducated, rural communities but not the majority of Malaysians.  

 

So with the belated departure of the ulama faction, what has remained in the opposition now are the core DAP and PKR parties which are united by their moderate, secular and pro-rakyat common policy platform.

This platform - which I should point out was supported by more than half the country's electorate during the last general election - only needs a bit of refining for it to convince Malaysians that they are voting for the right party committed to modern development, justice and good governance.

There is no need for the two core parties to reinvent the wheel. There should be no religious content in it, no religious salesmanship or one-upmanship needed.

No need to devote any attention to hudud. Just keep cool and let PAS and Umno battle it out on the hudud and Islamic state issue in the next election.

PAS moderates break positive

I am especially encouraged and excited by the prospect of a breakaway group of PAS moderates linking up with the opposition. This is a development that I have advocated and written about on several occasions.

The PAS moderates in Parliament at present have an impeccable track record of service. If they contest in the next elections under a new Islamic party or as part of a re-engineered Pakatan, I am sure that they will be returned with greater majorities.

It is not only PAS breakaway groups that will help break the BN monopoly of power. The potential for a larger opposition win exists because of what is happening in Sabah and Sarawak.

In those states Prime Minister Najib Razak and BN are scrambling to undo the harm caused by BN misrule and Umno colonialism of the two states. Treated like step children in the past, swarmed by hundreds of thousands of foreign migrants as a result of Dr Mahathir Mohamad's 'close two eyes' immigration policy, exploited of their natural wealth, I predict that the electorate in East Malaysia will deal the death blow to the BN.

Why do I say this? I know that Najib is throwing hundreds of millions - some say, billions - of ringgit in the direction of East Malaysia in an effort to make up for the BN's past sins. But I am confident that the young generation of voters know that as long as Umno calls the shots in national politics, their future will never improve.

Ketuanan Melayu and ketuanan Islam will mean that East Malaysians and their livelihoods, culture, language and religion will always have to take second place and they will be provided with inferior positions and resources. Just look at the latest 11th Malaysia Plan and budget.

Umno's dominance of BN will mean that however good the East Malaysian is, an Umno sponsored or affiliated candidate - in school, university, employment, government service, private sector - will always be top dog. East Malaysians will be left the crumbs after Umno and its East Malaysia collaborators such as former Sarawak chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud are finished.

BN's death spiral

Even if it is argued that the opposition is in bad shape, the BN is in a far worse shape. It is in a downward death spiral from which I can see no recovery. The Mahathir-Najib power struggle has exposed so much dirt, which is being disseminated through the BN - not the opposition - mass media.

This dirt can be used by the opposition as ammunition for the next general election.

Meanwhile the 1MDB financial scandal and GST imposition have made ordinary people see clearly the direct connection between their rising cost of living and the BN government's mismanagement, abuses and stupidity. Come election day, we can be sure that there is no way the BN government can bring down the price of essential goods, food and utilities.

Everything has gone up since the GST was introduced and the falling ringgit has made it even worse. Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad has blamed the falling ringgit and higher cost of living on Najib's bad economic policies.

But according to Deputy Finance Minister Ahmad Maslan, it is because of Dr Mahathir's big mouth . I am sure that ordinary Malaysians know that it has been a combination of Dr Mahathir's and Najib's leadership and BN's misgovernance that account for why the rakyat are suffering.

I predict that the next general election will see the voters punish the BN by giving them their worst defeat ever.

KOON YEW YIN, a retired chartered engineer, is a philanthropist.