The influence of former Umno deputy president Anwar Ibrahim may just be the tonic that party president and Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi needs to overcome his 'weak' position in Umno, said a political scholar.

New Era College researcher Phoon Weng Keong told a public forum that the recently concluded Umno elections have shown that Abdullah is in a weaker position in relation to his deputy Najib Abdul Razak.

"Najib has shown his strength. Abdullah has to enhance his position by getting support from outside (the party) to balance the situation. He might need a 'counterpart' like Anwar," he argued, also noting that Umno's future appears to be unsteady.

Phoon pointed out that Abdullah's hopes of reforming the party have been dashed - he had spoken of the need for strong values when opening the Umno general assembly on Sept 23, but was clearly ignored by delegates during the voting process.

"Those who lost made statements about money politics...this has rarely happened," he said.

The forum, entitled 'After Umno elections, has the political scenario changed?', was organised on Monday by Chinese-language Oriental Daily News. It also featured malaysiakini columnist Sim Kwang Yang and Southern College principal Thock Kiah Wah as speakers.

Phoon, a well-known columnist in the Chinese press, said the first wave of reformasi triggered by Anwar's sacking in September 1998 had allowed the release of 'people power'.

The second wave of reformasi. if it does happen, will be the outcome of a power struggle between the political elite, he said ( second from left ).

He categorised the elite into four camps - moderate opposition, radical opposition, reformists in the government, and conservatives in government.

Phoon described Anwar as a leader of moderate opposition, PAS as radical opposition, Abdullah as a reformist in government and Najib as a conservative in government.

Power struggle

Phoon said the Umno elections also showed an additional and imminent split in the party between the reformists and conservatives.

"I think Umno will see a power struggle between (the two camps). Should Abdullah bow to or oppose the conservatives' demands, such as not re-admitting Anwar into Umno?" he asked.

He foresees that Abdullah will "fight back" by arranging to place trusted people in key positions in government.

"Logically speaking, if Abdullah bows to everything the conservatives demand, it will mean political suicide for him," Phoon added.

Sim, who is a former DAP MP for Kuching, said allegations of rampant money politics in Umno have shown that "the only party that could kill Umno is Umno itself".

"I think Umno is committing suicide, it is going to destroy itself," he claimed, saying that Abdullah may be sincere about reforms but that the effort will be thwarted.

Thock, who said Abdullah does not have the political will to carry out overall reform, was equally pessimistic about Anwar's ability to bring about reforms in the country.

"Politicians cannot be trusted, so we must have strong civil society to promote reform," he added.