Despite BN chairperson Najib Abdul Razak being weakened by various scandals, Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem is not likely to take advantage to leverage for a better deal for his state.

 

Political scientist James Chin said historically, BN component parties tend to stay in the sidelines when Umno is in crisis, to avoid the risk of betting on the wrong horse.

 

The director of the Asia Institute in Tasmania said Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) leader Adenan could use the fact that Najib needs a strong partner to maintain his hold on power.

 

However, BN component parties, including ,would rather keep a low profile and wait out the crisis to see if a new leader would emerge, Chin told Malaysiakini when contacted yesterday.

 

“Because, whatever leverage that you put on Najib now, say Najib falls down and a new leader comes up - say for example, (Umno deputy president) Muhyiddin Yassin comes up - then you are in trouble.

 

“People will remember these deals,” Chin said.

 

He was asked to comment on the recent developments in Sarawak, including the fact that Adenan has been riding on Sarawak nationalist sentiments to garner support amid a looming state election.

 

Adenan has also been pressuring the federal government on a number of issues, including a failed negotiation to increase the oil royalty paid to the state from five percent to 20 percent.

 

‘Won’t rock mothership’

 

Chin explained that since Dr Mahathir Mohamad took power as Umno president in 1981, he has turned Umno into BN’s “mothership”.

 

“In other words, everyone recognises that if Umno is strong, BN is strong; if Umno is weak, BN is weak.

 

“So, all the other component parties understand this and they will not rock the boat,” he said.

 

Nevertheless, Chin speculates that Adenan ( photo ) may still get the oil royalty increased by a few percentage points, even up to 10 percent, just to “make him look like a hero” to the people, although he is unlikely to gain the full 20 percent he has been demanding.

 

He pointed out the federal government could not raise oil royalties in Sarawak alone, and such a policy change would also affect other oil producing states, including Terengganu and the opposition-controlled Kelantan.

 

As for the state election, Chin believes that Adenan is set for a major victory, with opposition party DAP expected to win the Chinese-majority seats and BN the Iban and Malay-majority seats.

 

He highlighted that Adenan has been promoting calls for greater autonomy for Sarawak, and had even held his own Sarawak independence day celebration on July 22.

 

This is separate from the ‘722 Sarawak Freedom and Independence Day Walk’ being held by NGOs in Kuching, which saw a turnout in the thousands despite warnings from the police.

 

Adenan gaining Iban support

 

The NGO-led walk was the largest turnout ever for the event since the practice started in 2013.

 

The event commemorates the 52nd anniversary of the day when the British handed over power to the first Sarawak chief minister, Stephen Kalong Ningkan, on the condition that the state would later join Sabah, Singapore and Malaya to form Malaysia.

 

Chin said in voicing his support for Sarawak autonomy, Adenan had also called on Sarawakians to support only Sarawak-based parties, implying the rejection of PKR and DAP - the two main opposition parties in the state - that have their roots in Peninsular Malaysia.

 

“It’s quite clear. Adenan is saying all the right things, like ‘We are Sarawakians. We are different from Umno.’ He is making all the right noises, so he will win the majority of the Iban areas,” he said.

 

On the other hand, Chin said Adenan’s call to support Sarawak-based parties would have little traction among the Chinese, who are still incensed by the alleged corruption under the regime of the previous chief minister and present Sarawak Governor Abdul Taib Mahmud.

 

In addition, he said, Sarawak DAP already enjoys a significant amount of autonomy from its central leadership, to the extent it is almost a separate party by itself.

 

This became apparent when Sarawak DAP announced in March, without consulting with its party leadership, that it would cut ties with its PAS counterpart, Chin aid.

 

Sabah DAP and Sabah PKR followed suit a week later, while the national leadership had only cut ties with PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang but not the Islamist party itself until June, when they finally announced the “ death ” of Pakatan Rakyat.

 

PKR weak in S’wak

 

As for PKR, Chin said the party is caught is a no-win situation in Sarawak because it can only hope to make inroads in constituencies where no ethnic group has a clear majority.

 

This is because these mixed seats are also where DAP is planning to expand, and the national PKR and DAP leadership would have to intervene to ensure that the two parties do not clash and split their supporters.

 

In addition he said, PKR also suffers from a weak campaign machinery, apart from the constituency of Layar, where Sarawak PKR information chief and political newcomer Vernon Kedit has been laying the groundwork over the past two years to contest against Sarawak Deputy Chief Minister Alfred Jabu, who has held the seat for nine terms.

 

The next state election should be called before August 2016.