A social media posting claiming that Dr Mahathir Mohamad will announce his decision to quit Umno once again, created quite a buzz yesterday.

Though the posting turned out to be false, Malaysiakini spoke to several analysts on the impact of such a move now should Mahathir decide to repeat the same tactic when he attempted to oust his successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2008.

Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian believes that with regard to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, Mahathir quitting Umno would be in vain.

"I think Mahathir has done quite a lot of things to unseat the PM, but so far he's been unsuccessful.

"I'm not sure whether by (Mahathir) quitting the party, anything would change - the discourse or the outcome of the national leadership," he told Malaysiakini .

Abdullah relented

Ibrahim said Mahathir's ploy of quitting Umno worked the first time only because Abdullah relented and quit of his own accord.

However, he pointed out that Najib appears steadfast in his decision to remain in office.

"I'm not sure what more he (Mahathir) can actually do right now, within what's legal.

"He's exhausted his means; he's tried to galvanise the public against the PM, tried to convince Umno members to go against him (Najib).

"I think he (Mahathir) should be content with what's he's done so far," he said.

Ibrahim said the people have heard Mahathir speak his mind and know where he is coming from and what his intentions are.

He added that it was now up to Umno members and the voters to decide the outcome of the bitter fight between Mahathir and his former protege.

People don’t get shocked twice

Meanwhile, political analyst Wong Chin Huat said he would not be surprised if Mahathir were to quit Umno again.

However, he too argued that it would be much less effective now than back in Abdullah's time.

Wong said the shock from Mahathir quitting the first time was what made it such an effective move in removing Abdullah from office.

"People don't get shocked twice," he told Malaysiakini .

It would have an insignificant impact, he said, unless Mahathir followed up with some other action after quitting Umno, like mobilising forces outside of Umno.

"The effect of him (Mahathir) quitting would be rather minimal (this time), if not followed up with some other action.

"He'd probably start a new group though they may not call themselves a party, or they might, we don't know," he said.