There is a chance for the Kedah state opposition to form a new government, said an analyst in light of the concerted move to oust Kedah Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir.

Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) lecturer Azizuddin Mohd Sani, however, said the opposition must obtain the support of at least four or five state assemblypersons from Umno to form a new government with a simple majority.

BN, he said, has 21 seats while the opposition has 15.

Apart from this move, Mukhriz could also maintain his post as menteri besar if he obtains the same number of support from the opposition state assemblypersons.

However, Mukhriz would face a daunting task since Umno assemblypersons in the state are now split over their support for him as menteri besar.

“To remove him as menteri besar, they need a simple majority whereby 19 state assemblypersons must state that they reject him," Azizuddin told Malaysiakini .

“But if Muhkriz manages to get four or five Umno assemblypersons and merge with the opposition, it won’t be impossible for him to remain as menteri besar," he added.

Kedah Umno deputy chief Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah on Wednesday initiated an open war against Mukhriz, declaring that the state's Umno rank-and-file has 'lost confidence' in the leadership of the menteri besar.

He also called for Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to intervene and replace Mukhriz as menteri besar.

Opposition has its own problems

Meanwhile, commenting further on the possible formation of a new government in Kedah, Azizuddin pointed out that the opposition is wrought with its own problems.

Citing the split within PAS where several members joined splinter party Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah), he pointed out how several PAS leaders were close to Umno and are in support of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak instead of Mukhriz or his father, Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Azizuddin however is optimistic of Mukhriz remaining as menteri besar based on his statement where he insisted that he would maintain his post.

He said attempts to oust Mukhriz as menteri besar were also not something new.

However, he argued that whatever has occurred in Kedah over the past few days is enough to affect the ruling Umno-BN government.

Azizuddin therefore predicts that the issue would prolong until the next general election.

“Mukhriz’s main problem is his relationship with the Umno central leadership. This issue may prolong.

“It can be shortened if Mukhriz resigns like (former Terengganu menteri besar) Ahmad Said or it can prolong like the case in Perak. Maybe the issue won’t be solved until the general election comes,” he said.

Mukhriz was appointed as Kedah menteri besar after Umno-BN won the state in the last general election. BN won 21 out of the 36 seats contested.