ANALYSIS Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem appears to be one of the most popular BN leaders around.

Research by Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) professor Jeniri Amir reportedly shows that Adenan's approval rating is 85 percent in Sarawak, compared with 60 percent for Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak.

He is so popular that even Najib's scandals, and pressure from the goods and services tax (GST), don't appear to be real obstacles for Adenan in the forthcoming Sarawak state election.

However, one pundit said the Parti Bumiputera Bersatu Sarawak (PBB) president may not be as confident as he is popular.

Universiti Malaya (UM) analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said while the effects of Najib's scandals are limited, Adenan has nonetheless postponed elections several times in the hope that the issue would blow over.

This, Awang Azman said, is because the scandals reflect badly on the BN leadership and don't resonate well with urban voters.

It's not that Adenan cannot win because of the scuttlebutt around Najib, but Awang Azman hinted that the chief minister might be a little self-conscious about how this would affect his performance in the state election.

“Adenan needs to win big because this is his first time helming the Sarawak BN,” the UM professor said.

He believes this could be achieved if Adenan is able to settle the internal problems plaguing the Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) and Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP), both of which are squabbling with splinter parties.

“If he can make peace, without protest or sabotage votes from the parties involved, then Adenan can enjoy a big win.”

Failure to do so, Awang Azman warned, could lead not only to sabotage, but may even result in multi-cornered fights involving more than one BN-aligned candidate.

Analyst James Chin previously warned that such contests would provide an easy win for the opposition, especially DAP.

In the event that Adenan fails to win big, Awang Azman said, his leadership and PBB's role as the backbone of Sarawak BN would remain secure.

However, the UM lecturer said, the infighting in the ruling coalition would worsen, and it is likely that ties with the peninsula would also sour if blame for the small win is put on the 1MDB scandals and GST.

Fortunately for Adenan, pundits, including Awang Azman, believe that the Sarawak BN will have an easy time in the coming election.

Redelineation will contribute to bigger majority

There are also indications the PBB president may actually be able to succeed where Najib failed in 2013.

Back then Najib's campaign that a vote for BN is a vote for him, floundered and almost capsized BN when it only managed to secure 47 percent of the popular vote.

However, Jeniri of Unimas said the Sarawak BN under Adenan may be able to hoist its share of the popular vote from 55 percent to 60 percent this coming election.

Awang Azman added that the state constituency redelineation exercise would contribute to this bigger majority.

“The popular vote (in Sarawak) will go up for sure. It is expected that nine of the 11 new state assembly seats will be won by Sarawak BN,” he said.

Chin has also said that in the event of a straight fight, the BN will give DAP a run for its money in urban Chinese seats and plunder its majorities, albeit not enough to win.

A big win would give Adenan a stronger hand when negotiating with an embattled Najib for more autonomy and economic independence for Sarawak.

This is especially important, since Adenan has promised that he would only remain as chief minister for one more term, leaving him not much time to seal his legacy as a state hero.

Part 1: Will shooting at Najib sink Adenan's ship in Sarawak polls?

Part 2: Will S'wak BN pay the price of GST at the polls?