Sarawak chief minister Adenan Satem may be overwhelmingly popular, but this won't translate to votes in the upcoming state polls, said a political analyst.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor Faisal Syam Hazis this can be easily observed by current predictions that BN's share of the popular vote in the polls will only go up by about five percent, compared to Adenan's 85 percent approval rating.

"Adenan is popular, but overrated. There are many lingering issues that will influence voters," Faisal said in a forum on the Sarawak polls organised by the International Islamic University (UIAM) today.

Among the lingering issues he said, were economic factors such as the effects of the goods and services tax; in-fighting among Sarawak BN component parties; corruption; and Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's alleged scandals.

Urban voters who like Adenan, he said, will also vote for the opposition to act as a check and balance to BN, he added.

Upper hand

BN however will have the upper hand in rural areas Faisal said.

He predicts the state government will make use of its RM3 billion 2016 allocation for rural development during the polls, especially in areas where DAP has been engaging the grassroots.

"DAP won't win this kind of game, the incumbent government has more resources," he said.

As for talks about autonomy, the UKM professor dismissed this as rhetoric that will only benefit elites if there is no accountability.

As such, he said if the opposition wants to do well, it should come up with an alternative narrative that focuses on accountable autonomy, as well as economic issues.

"If they focus on the economy, get straight fights with BN, they can actually do well in BN marginal seats."

Overall Faisal predicts BN may win between 64 to 72 seats, while the opposition may win between 10 to 18 seats.

Asked after the forum about Amanah's chances however, the analyst said the fledgling Islamist party will not have an impact or win any of the 13 seats they plan to contest.

The opposition currently holds 15 seats, BN 55, and one belongs to an independent.

The upcoming state polls, expected to be held in late April or early May, will feature 11 new state seats.