news analysis

There has been so many guesses in the past months regarding the Sarawak state elections which must be held on or before Nov 17 this year.

Strangely though Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's visit to Kuching over the weekend has not been directly connected to the polls by any media report. Officially, Abdullah's visit was to attend a grand Gawai Dayak celebrations on Saturday morning at the Kuching Civic Centre.

But malaysiakini has learnt that the topic of the upcoming state election was discussed in private discussions between the deputy prime minister and Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud.

In fact, when reporters asked Abdullah about the date for the state election, he told them he had asked Taib about it. "He just kept quiet," he said.

Meanwhile, Sarawak Barisan Nasional top leaders and state officials said the election is likely to be in September. After all, the past two elections - 1992 and 1996 - were all held in September.

"Taib likes September," said an Taib's party Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) official.

In any case, September is only three months away, and between now and then there will be enough things to keep BN leaders busy. Taib is said to want to call up all PBB divisional representatives for a meeting in Kuching ahead of the state polls.

"He wants to tell them directly about the issues that the opposition has been bringing up, and tell them to address these issues," the PBB official said.

Fear of reprisals

Parti Keadilan Sarawak liaison chief Hafsah Harun is among the opposition leaders who can smell that the election date is near.

A former state minister who formed part of the Maju group which made a vain attempt to oust Taib as chief minister, Hafsah was quoted by local newspapers as saying that Keadilan is worried many voters may not want to come out to vote for fear of reprisals should they support opposition candidates.

She claimed that words had been spread around among Malay villages that the government would not help those who did not vote for BN and they would be 'punished' with the withdrawal of projects and the like from their areas.

Hafsah asked the authorities to clarify the matter and at the same time to assure voters, especially those in kampungs, that no one would know who they had voted for. The government has yet to made any response to the accusation.

The opposition has also expressed concerned regarding the Election Commission (EC)'s decision not to print the ballot papers in Kuala Lumpur. According to the EC, the ballot papers would be printed in Kuching and it has assured around-the-clock security at the printing plant.

Although there has not been any talk about the electoral rolls being padded with phantom voters or non-citizens and convicted persons, nevertheless the opposition has raised several issues concerning the electoral rolls.

But the concern is also shared by the ruling BN which was upset after they found out months ago that the EC had dropped thousands of names from the voting list. The reason, according to them, was that the commission had decided only to keep names with new identity cards and to remove those with old identity cards.

This has since been rectified, and it is understood that this was one of the reasons that the state election has been delayed.

All geared up

On record, all parties - both BN and the opposition - have declared they are ready and that their lists of candidates have been more or less finalised. Every party has however left one or two each still undecided either due to internal dispute or too many interested candidates or the inability to agree on seat allocations in certain areas.

Take for example the rural constituency of Telang Usan, Baram in northern Sarawak. Dozens of people are keen to run for the seat. The incumbent is an Independent, and former PBB leader Kebing Wan.

Another is the Chinese seat of Padungan which is presently held by former speaker Song Swee Guan, who is also member of parliament for Bandar Kuching. The Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP), a component of the ruling coalition, wants to field a woman candidate Lily Yong, a political secretary to the chief minister and SUPP woman leader. But repeated ground assessments to the idea are not as favourable as party leaders would like to hear.

Song was the first SUPP leader to beat former Democratic Action Party (DAP) Sarawak strongman Sim Kwang Yang in both state and parliamentary seats in Kuching. Most people feel that should Keadilan field the well-liked Stampin branch secretary and legal adviser Dominique Ng as the opposition candidate it would be a tough fight for BN.

However, BN is hoping that DAP will go ahead and field Chong Chieng Jen, also a lawyer, to split the opposition vote. If Keadilan and DAP were to do this in a number of disputed areas, that would adversely affect their best chances.

Taib to return to power

The feeling is that Taib's BN will be returned to power but not as easily as the last state elections when almost 20 of their candidates were returned unopposed. This time every seat will be contested, according to political observers.

Even Taib himself expected to be challenged by his former party deputy president Abang Abu Bakar, a former defence minister.

All opposition parties - Keadilan, PAS, STAR and Abang Abu's group - have expressed their intention to contest, suggesting that not a single seat will be left unchallenged.

Most observers are prepared to acknowledge that this time round because of strong feelings on a number of local issues such as Taib's family interest, the so-called marginalisation of the Malay community in Sarawak politics, business and administration, and the native customary rights land, there will be a keen tussle in most if not all areas.

At the end of the day, human and capital resources and the advantage of control over the media will determine the winner, as they always do, not just in Sarawak but elsewhere in the country.

TONY THIEN is a freelance writer based in Kuching.