COMMENT We were all saying that Sarawakians had a golden opportunity to send a strong message to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak about the biggest scandal that has rocked the world. Instead, Sarawakians chose to give its Chief Minister, Adenan Satem, the mandate.

The onus is now on voters from Sungai Besar in Selangor and Kuala Kangsar in Perak. Will they return in droves for the twin by-elections on June 18? Their return is crucial in deciding whether the Barisan Nasional (BN) or Parti Amanah Negara candidate will win in these two by-elections.

It is unlikely that PAS will win in any of these two by-elections because they have been played out by Umno over the hudud issue. The question is whether they will make a dent to Umno or Amanah’s vote base.

Amanah is no new kid on the block

But a big win by Amanah will definitely send shock waves to Umno and its president. It will shake the reshape the future political landscape and cause the political parties to realign themselves.

Amanah, being a multiracial party, is more acceptable to non-Muslim voters, and unlike PAS, Amanah has both Muslim and non-Muslim members.

Hu Pang Chaw, who used to be the chief of the PAS Supporters’ Club, is now a full-fledged Amanah member. Amanah’s foray into Malaysian politics will change the way race-based parties such as Umno, MCA and MIC play their politics.

Without the ulama faction, Amanah has a better chance of working in close collaboration with Pakatan Harapan and other opposition parties in East Malaysia. Its candidates for both constituencies are strongly supported by the other two major component parties - PKR and the DAP.

If, in the past, DAP would not work with PAS, at least from my observations in Sungai Besar, the DAP is solidly behind the Amanah candidate, Ustaz Azhar Abdul Syukur. This is because all along, DAP had no problem working with the likes of Mohamad Sabu and Khalid Samad. These were the faces of PAS, but now, they are the old faces in Amanah.

And, certainly Amanah is no new kid on the block. Despite being a splinter party from PAS, Amanah has a totally different worldview compared to the ulama-backed Islamic-leaning party. It is more inclusive and friendly to the Pakatan coalition. They were formerly part of PAS when Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat was able to hold the two factions together.

Under current president Abdul Hadi Awang, PAS is only the ulama faction, while the more progressive Amanah has taken on a more Malaysian identity, a good reason why even both former Bersih co-chairperson Ambiga Sreenevasan and present chairperson Maria Chin Abdullah see it fit to support the Amanah candidates in their individual capacities.

These two by-elections are the testbed for the new party, and for it to attract non-Muslim votes would not be difficult. It is reported that PAS has lost over 200,000 members who crossed over to join Amanah, and most urban Malays are more likely to be attracted to the new party.

When I met Mat Sabu, as he is affectionately known, at a local police station, I was pleasantly surprised with the warm welcome that he received from the police officers at the station. One of them was to retire soon, and without hesitation, he told Mat Sabu that he would set up an Amanah branch office in his kampung.

At least in Sungai Besar, I see the chances are very good for Amanah to win with the support of the Chinese votes and with the Malay votes being split between Umno, PAS and Amanah, there is a good chance for Ustaz Azhar to win.

An Amanah win will certainly send PAS back as jaguh kampung to their home ground in Kelantan. Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is sharp with his observation that “PAS is now courting Umno as it requires support after being left as a stand-alone party”.

It will never be treated as Umno’s equal, especially with the allocation of seats during the next general election. Over the hudud issue, Umno cannot pretend that it has the support of the non-Muslim parties. As much as Umno leaders think that they do not need the non-Malay votes to win an election, their support of the hudud laws will turn off a majority of non-Malay votes.

An unusual endorsement

What will further enhance Amanah’s win in these two by-elections is Dr Mahathir’s visit to Sungai Besar yesterday and subsequently to Kuala Kangsar, which is sure to cause Umno votes to split.

Dr Mahathir has personally endorsed the Amanah candidates in both constituencies. Even Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is deeply concerned that Dr Mahathir would sway Umno votes towards Amanah.

In Kuala Kangsar, the Amanah candidate, Dr Ahmad Termizi Ramli is a former professor, who is contesting against the widow of the deceased, Mastura Mohd Yazid, who is great disadvantaged because she can hardly meet the people.

Playing on the people’s emotions using songs would not be sufficient; the people need to meet with the candidate and to shake hands with her. Surely, there would be candidates who are more qualified than Mastura in Kuala Kangsar!

In my opinion, Umno’s attempt to bring forward Hadi’s private member’s bill recently has already backfired, as the Chinese voters can now see that Umno does not even show any respect for the component parties in BN.

If anything, these two by-elections will see more people getting to hear about the scandals involving Najib and and his flamboyant wife. PKR secretary-general Rafizi Ramli has already exposed more jaw-hanging extravagance by Rosmah Mansor flying to Istanbul on a private jet and a whole entourage of 13 people.

From being one of Asia’s four economic tigers, Malaysia has earned the notoriety worldwide for its 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, which is touted to be one of the biggest scandals in the world involving the banking system in several countries. We want him to resign and take responsibility for the failure of 1MDB, but the message has not hit him real hard.

We want Najib to get the message

Over a million people have signed the Citizens’ Declaration. All that can be done has been done, and the forms are awaiting for clearance to be sent to the Agong’s palace.

What disappoints me is that there are people who are willing to insult over a million other fellow citizens who signed the forms. We can expect more of such stories appearing involving an IT programme, with the clear intention to derail the cause championed by the Citizens’ Declaration secretariat.

We also want Najib to realise that the people are unhappy with the passing of the National Security Council (NSC) law without proper consultation with the royalty. Groups like Perkasa who have always been sloganeering about their loyalty to the royalty should speak up, but surprisingly they are not as vocal!

By having two more lawmakers from BN in parliament after these two by-elections, it is simply helping Najib to push through his own set of laws to further fortify his position. Having two Amanah lawmakers will not make a difference in who takes over Putrajaya, but it is enough to send a chill across BN. Its inability to respond to the 1MDB scandal will cost it many votes.

As pointed out by one Puthan Perumal in his letter to the editor, the concerns raised by the Conference of Malay Rulers regarding the 1MDB scandal cannot be ignored. And voters in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar now have the chance to flex their muscles and show the ruling parties who is the third force.

Will they represent fellow Malaysians who signed the Citizens’ Declaration in rejecting the Barisan Nasional candidates? And, with it, a strong message to Najib that if he continued into the 14th general election, BN may have to kiss goodbye to Putrajaya?

I wish them all the best.

STEPHEN NG is an ordinary citizen with an avid interest in following political developments in the country since 2008.