ANALYSIS | While BN will most likely retain Kuala Kangsar, a Perak parliamentary seat never lost to the opposition, the battlefield in the royal town is however far from boring.

It is interesting to watch the three major contestants - Umno, PAS and its splinter party, Amanah - fight for Malay votes, while DAP battles traditional rivals MCA and Gerakan for non-Malay votes.

If eight-month-old Amanah is able to score a higher tally than PAS, or a large portion of Chinese votes swing back to BN, the winning side is expected to declare a moral victory. So win or lose, the stakes are high for all contesting parties.

The Kuala Kangsar parliamentary, comprising 68 percent Malay, 24 percent Chinese and seven percent Indian voters, which roughly reflects the nation’s racial composition, is a traditional Umno stronghold.

It will be a litmus test for Umno as to how the Malays react to the 1MDB fiasco and RM2.6 billion that went into Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's private bank account.

This by-election is a barometer for PAS, which is now fighting the battle alone without the support from its former allies. The voters will decide if they are willing to accept the new ties between the Islamic party and Umno.

This will also be the first real electoral foray for Amanah, and its performance will indicate whether Pakatan Harapan can mount a strong challenge in the next general election, due in two years.

Umno, which is banking on sympathy votes with its choice of candidate – the widow of the incumbent parliamentarian who was killed in a tragic helicopter crash – appeared to be more at ease than the other parties.

It played its usual ‘goodies and development’ card to woo voters, but the amount spent or promised is nowhere near the money poured into the Sarawak state election last month.

Najib gave RM500 each to all 388,111 smallholders and rubber tappers nationwide, totalling RM194 million. He also announced RM43.5 million for the Manong bridge in the royal town, a project which was mooted decades ago.

And on cue, he told voters to fulfil his wish since he had fulfilled theirs. “My wish is for you to help support the BN candidate,” said Najib.

DAP Perak chief Nga Kor Ming was not amused. "There is a Chinese saying -  you give us one candy and we lose the entire factory to you."

BN steers clear of 1MBD scandal

BN candidate Mastura Mohd Yazid, who is campaigning with her sons, emphasised on continuing her late husband's unfinished struggle as well as local issues.

Despite frequent press conferences to bolster her lack of presence in the electoral hustings, the widow and her sons declined to respond on national issues, in particular, the controversies surrounding 1MDB and the prime minister's wife Rosmah Mansor flight to Turkey on a chartered private jet.

"There has been an answer by the prime minister (Najib Abdul Razak). So, there’s no need to answer," said BN state assemblyperson Maslin Sham Razman when met on Sunday.

Similarly, both PAS and Amanah are also quite protective of their candidates - Dr Najihatussalehah Ahmad and Ahmad Termizi Ramli respectively. They barely let the media interview them.

On a few occasions, the duo were up to two hours late for some events, or failed to turn up at all. PAS, in particular, was not forthcoming with its candidate's programmes.

The Islamic party nevertheless holds an average of two ceramah every night, mostly in kampungs.

At the June 10 ceramah in Kampung Ketior, which comprises 493 voters, the 50-strong crowd at the event appeared encouraging for PAS. On the eve of nomination, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang's ceramah in Rancangan Perumahan Awam 4, a public housing enclave, drew a crowd of 400.

While raising national issues, such as goods and services tax (GST), PAS leaders never failed to poke fun at Amanah, calling them “cooking pan” – a play on the initials of Parti Amanah Negara.

On the other hand, DAP has been working overtime to introduce little-known Amanah, its logo and candidate, to the electorate. DAP lawmaker Wong Kah Woh lamented that some even think DAP was still with PAS.

DAP campaigners were seen carrying huge banners bearing the Amanah logo in housing estates and kampung areas all last week.

"When you vote, please vote for the 'golden hill party' (which has some resemblance to the Amanah logo)," said DAP leaders in their ceramah.

Or, they would tell the Chinese voters that the shape of the logo was similar to a dumpling with ropes binding the traditional dough. To the young voters, they would say the logo looked like the Adidas logo.

The message of Pakatan Harapan leaders has been rather consistent. They, without fail, told the crowd at ceramah that a vote for BN is a vote for corruption.

Miracle will not happen twice

Meanwhile, both MCA and Gerakan are going all out to win over the 7,900 voters, or 24 percent Chinese of the 32,949 voters in the parliamentary constituency.

While BN won 50.4 percent of the votes in Kuala Kangsar in the 2013 general election, some 76.5 percent of Chinese votes went to PAS.

According to a DAP source, PAS obtained only 45.1 percent of Chinese votes in the 2008 general election. It is generally believed that the ‘miracle’ of 2013 may not happen twice, with some observers pointing at the Sarawak state election, where BN wrested back five Chinese-majority seats.

Not surprisingly, Kampung Baru Jerlun, a Chinese new village with dilapidated infrastructure, has become the focus of the parties from both sides of the divide.

MCA, with the help of the Perak state government, expedited the application process for the village’s community hall - from the land approval to ground-breaking in four days.

On the day MCA president Liow Tiong Lai visited Kampung Baru Jerlun, the villagers were given a copy of the map showing the location of the community hall as the minister announced an allocation of RM500,000 for its construction.

"I want you to empower MCA. (You can) ask MCA for allocation, but (I) hope you will empower MCA so we can do even more," said Liow.

MCA also zoomed in on the hudud issue, telling the Chinese not to be duped into voting for Amanah.

‘Yang Benar’, an MCA ‘ceramah war truck’, has entered Chinese area thrice since campaign began, slamming hudud as cruel and gruesome, and at the same time dubbing Amanah as PAS 2.0.

Both MCA and Gerakan leaders also harped on Amanah president Mohamad Sabu's “hudud makes people feel happy” statement, which originated from some newspaper reports that had misquoted him.

Meanwhile, MCA Wanita chief Heng Seai Kie called for the 7,900 Chinese in Kuala Kangsar to represent the 6.8 million Chinese in the country to oppose hudud by voting for the Umno candidate, whose party ironically appears to back the controversial Islamic criminal law.

Lower turnout

PAS, which is slammed by BN component parties and DAP for its hudud platform, blamed the Chinese media for sowing misunderstanding.

Hadi had made an attempt to explain his hudud bill in Kampung Baru Jerlun to a Chinese crowd of 50 people, who were treated with a buffet dinner.

At the event, Perak PAS commissioner Razman Zakaria accused the Chinese media of causing fear among their readers.

"Don't slam us. The Chinese newspapers should instead write that this (the syariah law) is good and (we) should give it a try," said Perak PAS commissioner Razman Zakaria at Jerlun on nomination day, June 5.

"The Chinese papers have exaggerated their reports on the issue of the amputation of limbs and this scared the Chinese," said PAS supporters club member and former DAP representative Sum Cheok Leng.

Adding to the excitement, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad showed up on Sunday to campaign for Amanah.

The past week also saw the appearance of opposition star speakers - DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang, secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, publicity secretary Tony Pua, and PKR secretary-general Rafizi Ramli, among others.

However, the crowd at the ceramah organised by Pakatan Harapan ranged from 30 to about 300, which is not a good sign for the opposition.

The Super Saturday ceramah saw a respectable crowd of about 1,000. Wong argued that this was rather encouraging as Kuala Kangsar has only 8,000 Chinese.

The past week also witnessed the opposition calling for outstation voters to return home to vote. This is a major challenge given that by-elections tend to garner lower voter turnout compared to general elections.

It remains to be seen if the Mahathir effect, the 1MDB scandal and the recent flak over the PM’s wife using a chartered private jet, will gain traction.

And while Najib and Rosmah have campaigned in the royal town and put up a brave front against the opposition attacks, they have refused to take any questions from the media.