Public opinion in Sarawak seems to support the common belief that when long-serving Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud finally calls it a day, he will pass the baton to one of his most trusted and long-time lieutenants, federal Natural Resources and Environment Minister Adenan Satem.

That Adenan, in his early sixties and like Taib is an old boy of St Joseph's School, Kuching, is a Malay and not Melanau is of no consequence. He comes from a well-known Kuching family, an elder brother is Amin Satem, a wealthy businessman.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is also said to favour a Malay as the next chief minister to succeed Taib, a Melanau.

During a national television interview last Wednesday, Taib - chief minister since 1981 and heads Parti Pesaka-Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) - said he had decided on a successor but declined to name him

Over the past several years, he has repeatedly name three senior PBB leaders as potential successors but also said he would not reveal the name until a few months before he quits. So far, he has not indicated when he would step down as Sarawak's fourth chief minister.

Of the three names, two, Adenan and Abang Johari are Malay while the third, Effendi Norwawi, is said to have Melanau blood.

Taib's immediate predecessor was Tun Adul Rahman Yakub, his uncle and one-time political nemesis, who served from 1970 to 1981. The first two were Ibans - Stephen Kalong Ningkan(1963-1965) and Penghulu Tawi Sli (1965-1970).

Adenan has been a state minister from 1987 until March last year when he was appointed to the federal cabinet. He was once married to Taib's sister, Zainab.

Body language

Said a PBB leader who asked not to be identified: "The body language and the fact that Adenan often deputised for the chief minister when he was in the state should tell how close the two are. Adenan often represents Taib in federal functions or meetings.'

A former PBB Dayak state assemblyperson observed that when he was serving in the state, a lot of power appeared to be concentrated in Adenan's hands.

"Even other ministers and assistant ministers often came to him for advice and help", he said.

A drawback for Adenan in PBB is that he is only a senior vice-president, a post that was specially created in 1998 after he lost to Abang Johari in the contest for the PBB deputy president's post. Johari is currently state housing minister.

Inspite of the defeat, Taib later assigned Adenan to even more important portfolios, while Johari, the new deputy president, appeared to have been 'demoted', although the chief minister vehemently denied that was the intention.

He had said he needed someone who could look after housing well because of its importance with the population and urban centres growing accompanied by attendant problems related to the orderly and systematic development and provision of housing needs of migrant workers from the countryside.

Johari, still in his early 50s and always seen as energetic, resourceful and creative, has, according to many housing developers and contractors, given a new sense of direction and purpose for the housing industry in the state.

He is always seen in local newspapers visiting various parts of the state, trying to resuscitating failed housing schemes and pushing for new ones, and planning for a better living environment, and generally giving a new boost to the construction industry.

According to a senior PBB leader, it was Johari who helped bring in Adenan, a lawyer by training, as state assistant minister after he was elected state assemblyperson for Muara Tuang.

Johari, son of Sarawak's first post-Independence governor Tun Abang Haji Openg, is a Kuching Malay and has been credited for bringing some of the industrial progress to the state, especially in the electronic sector, with the setting up of the Sama Jaya Free Commercial Zone (SJFCZ) on the outskirts of Kuching and several other industrial estates.

Enjoys close rapport

He was also said to have boosted Sarawak tourism greatly when he was in charge of the portfolio before he was moved to the housing ministry.

But seasoned political analysts say that whatever decision Taib has made on his choice as successor, he keeps it very close to his chests.

"He does not even confide in his own confidantes, many of whom are still kept guessing after his television interview," they said.

While public opinion seems to suggest that Adenan is likely to be the chosen one, others will not, however, rule out Johari who enjoys a close rapport with all communities.

There are still others who would not want to rule out Effendi Norwawi, a PBB vice-president and former federal agriculture minister.

One of Taib's political aides told malaysiakini: "Don't forget what Effendi did for Taib when he was in Sarawak. He is appreciative of Effendi's contributions. But that should not be the only reason. Effendi can work with everyone, he has tremendous corporate experience, he is intelligent and can be a driver for initiatives and change".

Although he no longer holds any elected seat, that is a minor consideration as any PBB elected representatives can always be persuaded to make way, if necessary.

"Don't be surprise if Effendi comes back and stand in the next state elections," they added.

Taib's intentions will only become clearer, according to well-informed sources, when his PBB convention takes place in July or later. There has been talk that it may be postponed to next year.

A senior PBB supreme council member told malaysiakini that the council had not met yet to determine the date for the convention.

PBB Constitution

Associates of Johari say the housing minister is definitely defending his seat, although they admit, at the same time, it could be 'really tough' because more than fifty of the present 62 divisions are said to be 'locked up' with Adenan's supporters.

However, there are still political analysts who believe that in saying Adenan, Johari and Effendi are 'still very much in his radar' Taib is also as good as ruling out anyone else in the party as contenders for the state's chief executive job.

In fact, under the 1998 amendments to its constitution, PBB elected representatives - members of Parliament, state assemblypersons and senators can decide among themselves who they want to be nominated as chief minister, provided the party holds the majority of seats in the state legislative assembly.

This system could effectively knock off anyone no matter what senior position he holds in the party. Under the amended constitution, anyone so nominated or chosen for the post of chief minister from the party automatically becomes president of the party. Some legal quarters suggest that this might be ultra vires the constitution as the PBB supreme council members are actually elected by the delegates.

The special body of elected representatives and senators is known as a caucus that is intended to operate in much the same way as the British political system.

In other words, under the present circumstances, the chief minister has several options open to him to decide on a successor eventually, on the timing of such a move and to ensure that his personal decisions on crucial issues prevail.