news analysis

There will be two significant developments which the public, especially Umno delegates to the party's annual general assembly beginning tomorrow, can expect.

The first is the possibility of party president Dr Mahathir Mohamad announcing the exact date he will hand over the party and the government to his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Mahathir had announced that this will be his last term as Umno president and prime minister. He has said his health would not allow him to continue for another term. Since then, Mahathir has never said exactly when this will take place.

Abdullah is Mahathir's fourth deputy prime minister and Umno deputy president. The previous three - Musa Hitam, Ghafar Baba and Anwar Ibrahim - failed to make it to the top.

Mahathir has never been coy about his political future. "I will continue to be prime minister as long as the people need me ... ,". Political analysts point out by saying and doing so, Mahathir may have succeeded in enhancing his status among voters.

But then again, Mahathir's manouevre may have created some powerful enemies who could come back to haunt him.

Sparring partner

Mahathir's word on his successor is about to be put to the test by party members. Some quarters of Umno are pushing him to announce the exact date he will appoint Abdullah as his successor.

Apparently, that's not something Mahathir wants, at least not yet. Party insiders believe that he needs time to allow Abdullah's would-be 'sparring partner', Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, to reshape himself by strengthening his power base in Umno.

With the return of about 400,000 members of Semangat 46 into Umno, Tengku Razaleigh has now established a significant power base in the party. To a large extent, it is clear that power bases are the name of the game. And this would be the second significant development at the Umno general assembly.

Though Razaleigh has made enemies within Umno when he formed Semangat 46, he also made a favourable impression with his tough stance during the 1987 incident when Umno was declared an illegal society, and later when he dissolved his party (Semangat 46) to rejoin Umno..

Unlike before, gaining the party's deputy presidency today doesn't necessarily mean a ticket to the prime ministership. Given Mahathir's wait-and-see approach, the response to Abdullah thus far would seem to be 'no'.

This 'sparring partner' system, according to political commentators, will probably terminate the political life of half of the incumbents. But whatever the motives, onlookers doubt that this is just a matter of party loyalty.

Strong signs

Mahathir uses 'check and balances' to ensure that holders of government posts are kept aware of the presence of a political rival which has the favour of the Prime Minister. A classic example occurred when Musa was elected Umno deputy president over Razaleigh.

However, the Prime Minister, although he favoured Musa, refused his request that Razaleigh be dropped from the cabinet.

Apart from his value as a minister, Razaleigh was also useful to retain as a check in case Musa became too 'independent-minded'.

Later, when Anwar became increasingly likely to succeed Mahathir, the latter made sure that this would not occur inconveniently by appointing Ghafar as his deputy. Even in 1996, Razaleigh briefly resumed the role (not exactly of a threat, but rather of a 'shadow' threat) after he disbanded his party and with majority of his followers rejoined Umno.

In important states, an Umno menteri besar was usually checked by another prominent Umno politician from that state. This might be the head of the Umno state liaison committee (if the menteri besar did not hold that position) or a Cabinet minister. It is a weapon to ensure the supremacy of the dominant power, the Executive.

Wings clipped

One of the secrets of Mahathir's long stay in power is his ability to keep both opponents and allies guessing. Abdullah was seen as a possible successor of the prime minister.

But in recent months there have been strong signs that Abdullah, who is also the Home Affairs Minister, is no longer in favour following the handling of the ISA cases which has tainted Umno at a time when the popularity of opposition parties seem to be rising.

It would seem that Abdullah's spreading wings are currently being clipped by the president.

Abdullah has probably learned through trial and error that to become the country's number one is a lot harder than running for the party post. If he scales down his ambitions, he may find that some of his goals can be achieved.

As the party general assembly goes on, there will be some old problems that will not be resolved and some new ones generated. In between these two sets of problems, the beginnings of future problems may evolve. This will continue to be a major feature of Umno in transition.

NASH RAHMAN is former chief news editor of Berita Harian , former editor of the now defunct daily Watan and former associate editor of The Sun .