news analysis

As the party witnesses basic changes in the political scenario, Umno members and leaders face the challenge of adapting to them. Since its poor performance in the last general elections, there has been repeated calls for change and for the party to return to its grassroots and democratic origins.

This prompted Umno leaders to set up a fact-finding mission, which scoured the country for months to find out what were the changes that the members wanted. Essentially, the rank and file said they wanted a greater say in choosing party leaders, with no restrictions on who could stand against them in party elections.

And its biggest initiative, was to launch a movement called Puteri Umno to attract young Malay women, who will be the core of new voters for the 2004 general elections. Analysts say they will probably make it easier for the party to attract new, young blood.

Many members see the deep changes in Umno as crucial for damage-control after the sacking of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim in 1998. By ignoring the desire for greater internal democracy, Umno may only end up losing more votes.

And senior party leaders believe that in order to recover the loss of Malay support, the government must put political revival before economics.

These issues were highlighted repeatedly by the party delegates in the previous Umno general assembly. And now, the delegates are beginning to lose their patience, as this time around, they openly urged the party leadership to "get things going immediately".

'Clear erosion'

"There is a clear erosion of support among the Malays for Umno. If this is not addressed, it would be dangerous for the future," warned a delegate who also lamented that many party leaders are yet to translate their views into actions.

In a radical departure from previous norms, large numbers of Malays who comprise 55 percent of the population, withheld their support for Umno.

Islamic opposition party PAS registered major gains, prompting consternation in business circles and among the country's Chinese and Indian communities, who were worried about the rising Islamic sentiment.

As the dust settled, it was clear that non-Malay support for Umno's coalition partners had done much to perpetuate Mahathir's 18-year rule. Indeed, it was Umno that was hurt the most. It lost 20 parliamentary seats and was routed in the northeastern states of Kelantan and Terengganu.

In addition, readers are abandoning pro-government newspapers in favour of opposition tabloids and Internet news sites.

Umno politicians who came close to losing their seats voiced concern about the party's performance. They conceded that the votes showed a desire for adjustments.

"The Malays are emotional people so Umno must be very responsive," they said.

Even Umno president, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, had admitted a few days before announcing the 1999 general elections that the situation was "threatening".

Malaysians were beginning to believe opposition claims, which could significantly affect the continued support for Umno, he had said.

Serious blow

The loss of Kelantan and Terengganu has delivered a serious blow for Mahathir and Umno, suggesting that the party had lost the support of its core Malay constituency.

Although the occasionall street demonstrations which followed Anwar's arrest have now disappeared, it can still be translated into many votes against the government during the coming general elections.

Fortunately for Umno, fence-sitting voters in Malaysia, like those everywhere, tend to fall back on fundamentals - money, families and jobs - when they step into the privacy of the voting booth. Their support is critical.

Umno leaders should start visiting the grassroots and meet up with diverse groups of people to hear their version of the events. This would give an early reading about the public mood towards the party.

Whereas, another possibility is for Umno to start viewing the leaders who are a 'liability' and ease them out of the party.

"Umno cannot afford to make the mistake of allowing the opposition to gain more seats. By doing so, they would erode the Malay power," said a senior Umno member who added that the next general elections would gauge how much the party has changed.

NASH RAHMAN is former chief news editor of Berita Harian , former editor of the now defunct daily Watan and former associate editor of The Sun .