(AFP) news analysis

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad completes 20 years in power tomorrow, still firmly in control despite dwindling support for his ruling party and growing opposition to his authoritarian rule.

Mahathir fostered a sense of national identity in multiracial Malaysia, gave it a voice in the world and presided over dramatic economic growth.

But critics say the confrontational premier - whose favourite song is "I Did It My Way" - has also bent independent national institutions to his iron will and sought to stifle voices of dissent.

Mahathir, 75, follows a workaholic schedule despite a quadruple heart bypass in 1989 and shows no signs of stepping down any time soon.

He is firmly in the driving seat of the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) as it struggles to recapture lost ground following the sacking and jailing in 1998 of his popular heir apparent Anwar Ibrahim.

Chandra Muzaffar, deputy president of the National Justice Party (Keadilan) which is part of an opposition alliance formed in 1999, says "it would be good for us" if Mahathir leads Umno into the next election.

Polls must be held by 2004.

Obsession with power

Mahathir, he said, had lost much popularity - with the Anwar affair acting as a catalyst for latent discontent over earlier abuses of power.

"The root of all his problems has been his obsession with power," said Chandra, citing the 1986 rift between Mahathir and his then-deputy Musa Hitam, Umno's split the following year, the sacking of the top judge in 1988 and the Anwar crisis.

Chandra said the "most disastrous" by-product of Mahathir's rule had been the emasculation of independent institutions like the judiciary, the police, parliament, universities and the media.

"That's been the great tragedy of his rule - the overwhelming dominance of one man."

Khoo Boo Teik, a political scientist at the Science University of Malaysia, said there had been a centralisation, "in some cases even a personalisation, of power but at the expense of the independence of key institutions."

Lim Kit Siang, who like Chandra was detained without trial during Mahathir's rule, said he bears "sole responsibility for the destruction" of independent organs of government.

Deputy Information Minister Mohamad Khalid Mohamad Yunus said the perception of Mahathir as an authoritarian who will not take advice is wrong.

"In the (Umno) Supreme Council everyone is free to speak and even to criticise him," Mohamad Khalid said, adding that the premier is still strong and highly respected in the party.

Albatross of Umno

P Ramasamy, a political science professor at the National University of Malaysia, agreed Mahathir is in control of Umno. But he did not know how to make it relevant to today's issues and had lost popularity.

"Today people think he's an albatross around the neck of Umno."

Umno lost 22 seats in the 1999 elections, largely due to a backlash from ethnic Malays over Anwar's treatment. The ruling coalition which it heads still won over two-thirds of parliamentary seats.

Monuments to Mahathir's rule abound - the world's tallest buildings, roads, ports and airports, the so-called Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) and even an entire new city, Putrajaya.

Chandra says there had been necessary infrastructure developments, along with questionable mega-projects.

"While there has been growth and development, he's not very interested in the fair distribution of wealth," Chandra said. "He's so wedded to the idea of mega-projects which catch the eye - it's an edifice complex."

He does praise some important economic decisions, including the drive for export-oriented industrialisation in the early 1980s.

Ramasamy said privatisation programmes had tended to benefit "cronies" and affirmative action programmes for ethnic Malays had largely enriched a relatively small group.

But Mohamad Khalid said Mahathir could take most of the credit for economic growth.

"He is a doctor by profession but really understands other areas. He tries to master any topic before he takes any action."

Richer but not freer

Mahathir in 1995 said his greatest achievement was bringing together the Malay majority and the ethnic Chinese and Indians. Analysts agree.

"Indians, Malays and Chinese view themselves much more as Malaysians than 20 years ago," said Robert Broadfoot, managing director of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy.

"It's ironic that under someone once thought to be an extreme Malay nationalist, Malaysians came to feel proud of being Malaysians," said Khoo, who also noted some backward steps since 1999.

"He created a sense of Malaysian identity and gave Malaysia a voice in the world," said Michael Yeoh, chief executive of the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute.

Broadfoot credits growth under Mahathir but also cites state intervention in the economy and protectionism as his biggest shortcoming.

"Malaysia has backed the wrong horses too many times," Broadfoot said. "It's facing a real challenge in deciding what will be growth industries and what will be the area that keeps the economy moving."

Malaysia had been able to make major mistakes - such as Perwaja Steel, the 1983 Bank Bumiputera collapse and a failed bid to corner the world tin market - and recover.

"The difference today is you have China," Broadfoot said. "If it becomes a much more dynamic economy it will change the competitive face of Asia."

Ramasamy said Malaysia became richer but not freer.

"In the West economic growth breaks down authoritarianism, in Malaysia it's the other way round," he said.

"That's what Mahathir is paying a price for now."