The Lunas by-election issue now threatens the future of the Barisan Alternatif (BA). To make things worse, there have been a lot of myths which have influenced thinking about the BA decision to field Saifuddin Nasution Ismail of Keadilan as its candidate there.

This short comment seeks to clarify the issues in order to help overcome the emotional angst so as to try to set things right if the BA is to survive this wrenching episode. The BA faces the prospect of losing Lunas narrowly, and how did this situation come about ?

At the outset, it is important to emphasise several things:

1) Seat allocation in the BA in the run-up to the 1999 general elections was not satisfactory to all parties concerned, with Keadilan and the PRM feeling especially squeezed between the DAP and PAS, while the latter two believed they were making generous concessions to accommodate the newcomer and smaller parties.

There was no clear shared understanding about the basis for the 1999 seat allocation, and the implications of that seat allocation for the future. Hence, many in the DAP understandably believed that it had a superior claim to seats it had contested then in the event of a subsequent by-election.

2) Unlike the BN, which is a coalition of mainly ethnic parties, the BA comprises multi-ethnic parties (though PAS is religiously exclusive). Hence, there has been an inevitable rivalry on the ground with Keadilan and the PRM competing with the DAP for the non-Malay ground and with PAS for the Muslim ground.

Hence, while PAS and the DAP may have ideological and policy differences, there is less tension in terms of competition for the same ground. Needless to say, some of this tension may have been worsened by dissidents from one BA party joining another BA party.

Ethnic breakdown

3) Of the three by-elections since the Nov 1999 general elections, two have been due to the deaths of MIC incumbents who had been challenged in 1999 by Indian candidates contesting under the DAP symbol, although the 1999 BA candidate for Teluk Kemang was a former MIC leader who had joined Keadilan.

Keadilan has argued that since political dissent has been greatest among Malays after the Anwar arrests, the BA should consolidate and advance such Malay opposition to the BN as far as possible.

After agreeing to allow Keadilan's Ruslan Kassim to contest the Teluk Kemang by-election, the DAP understandably expected to nominate the BA candidate to contest the Lunas by-election.

4) The ethnic breakdown in Lunas in 1999 was 43.3% Malay, 19.1% Indian and 37.2% Chinese. Lunas has not always been an 'Indian seat', whether for the BN or the BA. As recently as 1995, the opposition candidate was from Semangat 46, not PAS or the DAP.

Other parties, including the PRM, have previously contested the seat. However, since the major rival candidates in 1999 were Indians, the DAP has since portrayed Lunas as its seat where an Indian candidate should be nominated, to match the BN's ethnic seat allocation arrangements, thus rendering ethnicity a non-issue, by its logic.

5) In the 1999 general election, the BN secured more than 70 per cent of the Indian vote in Lunas, much more than its overall margin of victory despite the fact that the DAP candidate was a Hindu and the BN candidate was a Catholic.

In the last elections, the BN secured 9,848 votes (57.5%), the DAP 5,000 votes and an independent Malay candidate 2,185 votes (12.8%). Lunas has again been given to a Catholic Indian as part of the MIC's own religious internal seat allocation.

Considerable success

6) Saifuddin was no stranger to Lunas, having contested the parliamentary seat of Padang Serai (where Lunas is located) in 1999 on behalf of Keadilan. Besides having been president of the UPM student union in the mid-eighties and Umno Youth executive secretary when he left Umno, he was also national BA organising secretary.

Perhaps with a view to the next general elections, even before Fernandez's death, he had continued to organize in the constituency after the general election with considerable success. Some DAP leaders who had visited the area came there due to invitations by Saifuddin.

7) In contrast, the losing DAP candidate was allegedly nowhere to be seen and the DAP's modest membership in Lunas diminished with the upsurge of Keadilan activity before the death of the BN incumbent.

There are various different political cultures in the BA, with PAS having the largest membership. In contrast, the DAP generally contests seats on the basis of its reputation, giving much less emphasis to grass-roots mobilisation compared to its BA partners as well as its BN counterparts.

Some would argue that while this served the DAP well in the past, this approach has become increasingly inadequate in the post-NEP period, with Dr Mahathir Mohamad's supposed liberalisation as well as strong MCA, Gerakan and MIC mobilisation and "service" financed by their ill-gotten gains.

8) A victory for the BA in the Lunas by-election would deprive the BN of its two-thirds majority in the Kedah state assembly. This was considered especially important by PAS, which already holds a third of the state assembly seats, but is perhaps less significant to the other BA parties.

9) With continuing anti-Mahathir sentiment among the Malays, the by-election seemed to offer an opportunity for the mobilisation and affirmation of Malay opposition to the current regime. The increasing post-election alienation of ethnic Chinese sentiment seemed to offer the real possibility of electoral victory in Lunas, which is also expected to boost morale in the Keadilan ranks after the second Anwar conviction and the harsh repression against many of its supporters.

Double reversing

It should be clear that the BA faced a very difficult dilemma. Most parties favoured Saifuddin's candidacy, although the BA leadership was also mindful of the DAP's likely disappointment and the probable perception that the BA was sidelining the Indian community in the interests of trying to win the seat.

Although many other non-DAP BA leaders shared these concerns, the possibility of winning the seat - which the BN had won with less than 60% in 1999 - was considered crucial for Keadilan and BA morale.

Mindful of the DAP's and Indian community concerns, the BA leadership agreed to meet a couple more times to try to find a broadly acceptable solution. Finally, it reversed its earlier decision, believing that allowing the DAP to field its Indian candidate would be crucial for the DAP's credibility.

However, the BA leadership had not adequately anticipated the adverse reaction of the Malay ground, putting the Keadilan leadership's future at great risk. Responding to the new danger, the BA leadership reversed itself yet again.

While such apparent indecision can easily be condemned, it also speaks volumes of the sensitivity of the BA leadership to the difficult dilemmas faced by the different BA parties and by the BA as a whole, especially with the mass media largely in the hands of cunning and unscrupulous spin doctors for the BN.

Unfortunately, there is little mutual understanding of such dilemmas on the ground in our culturally segmented society. This lack of mutual understanding contributed greatly to some insensitive remarks made by party activists on all sides, which has only aggravated the situation.

Lackey media

The BN controlled media has played a major role in worsening the situation for the BA. It has misquoted PAS president Fadhil Noor as having said that DAP chairman Lim Kit Siang had agreed to let Saifuddin contest the Lunas seat which, of course, he had never said.

Then, it quoted Keadilan president Wan Azizah as having said that her party rejected an Indian candidate for Lunas, which she too had never said. Needless to say, other BA leaders too have fallen into similar traps laid by the BN lackey media, and have reacted predictably, unwittingly serving the BN's ends.

Yet, at this point, three days before polling day, the BN is truly afraid of losing. Prime Minister Mahathir has been summoned to Lunas to try to swing the constituency in the BN's favour. But his presence may have precisely the opposite effect, alienating the Malays as well as the Chinese once again.

After all, isn't this the same Mahathir who is oblivious to Malay sentiment on the ground and changed his tune towards the Chinese after winning the 1999 polls with significant non-Malay support?

But this will not be enough. Notwithstanding the claims of some Chinese elements in Keadilan, victory can only be secured in Lunas with the DAP back on board the BA ship. Will the three Ks (Kit, Karpal and Kerk) show up these few days to clinch a much-needed morale-boosting victory for the BA? Or will they allow the Lunas dilemma to allow Mahathir to clinch a BN victory from the jaws of defeat?

The damage to the BA has been done. Public polemics, a hostile media, exaggeration and self-fulfilling prophecies have not helped. The BA will continue to face such dilemmas and must develop the necessary mechanisms to anticipate and better deal with them in the future.

But for the time being, if the BN wins in Lunas because the DAP has withdrawn support or stayed away, the future of the BA itself will be at risk. The DAP will be blamed by others for the BA's defeat at the hands of the BN.

Only Mahathir and his ilk will get any satisfaction from that. And all Malaysians will be poorer as a BN victory in Lunas will allow Samy Vellu to return to KL.

A IKA is a freelance writer based in Kuala Lumpur.