Social media research firm Politweet.Org has painted a bleak picture for both Bersatu and Amanah with regard to the 14th general elections.

Based on its findings, Politweet said both parties are contesting difficult seats and would win few seats even without PAS splitting the vote.

Bersatu, which is touted as an alternative to Umno, will contest in 52 seats in the peninsular whereas Amanah, a PAS splinter party, will field its candidates in 27 seats.

Assuming that voter sentiments remain as they were in the 13th general election, Politweet said its simulations predict that Bersatu would only win between three to six seats in parliament in the 14th general election, while Amanah would win between 14 to 18 seats.

Even if each voter has a five-percentage-point increase in probability in voting for the opposition, Politweet said Bersatu would win only 17 seats, while Amanah would win between 20 to 22 seats.

The firm observed that 62 percent of the electorate in constituencies where Bersatu will be contesting are inclined to vote for BN, while the figure is 50 percent for Amanah.

The simulations assume a united opposition front and do not account for the fact that there will be many three-corner fights between Harapan, BN, and PAS.

“With PAS splitting the vote, there will be few seats won by Bersatu and Amanah,” it added.

It also observed that nearly all of the seats to be contested by Amanah were contested by PAS during the 13th general election, meaning that opposition-leaning voters in those constituencies would likely be split between supporting Amanah or PAS.

Another conundrum in the ongoing redelineation exercise. If the redelineation process is completed in time for the 14th general election, Politweet predicted that BN would have a better chance at winning over ten seats from Harapan.

Of these, half are being contested by Amanah, namely Kuala Nerus, Bukit Gantang, Lumut, Hulu Langat, and Sepang. The remaining half is being contested by PKR.

Overall, Politweet predicts that PKR would win 28 out of 51 seats it will contest, while DAP would win 31 seats out of 35 contested.

It said PKR would be contesting in a mix of constituencies that are evenly split between BN-leaning and opposition-leaning, whereas DAP would be contesting in constituencies where large proportions of the electorate are opposition-leaning.

These simulations assume straight fights between BN and Harapan, and that the election would take place before the redelineation has been finalised.

It also assumes that voter turnout is the same as the national average in the 13th general election (84.84 percent), and voter sentiments were unchanged since that election.

Politweet said it had run its simulations based on estimates on how each voter would behave at the polls, which is, in turn, estimated based on their demography and the results of the 12th and 13th general elections.

It conducted 300 simulations of each of three scenarios to determine BN and the opposition’s odds of winning each constituency.

The three scenarios assume either: Voter sentiment remains unchanged, a two-percentage-point swing in Harapan’s favour, and a five-percentage-point swing.