GE14 | A large PAS flag, hoisted high on a wooden pole, flutters outside a house in Taman Desa, Muar, billowed by winds from a coming rainstorm.

On the porch, drumming his fingers on the arm of a wooden chair, is Johor PAS veteran Dr Sheikh Ibrahim Salleh.

Life had been good for Sheikh Ibrahim, who together with fellow PAS doctor Mohammad Taslim, saw their string of defeats in the 1999 and 2004 general elections turned into victories when they won the neighbouring Sungai Abong and Maharani state seats respectively, in both the 2008 and 2013 elections.

But when Malaysiakini met with Sheikh Ibrahim on the evening of March 3, his prognosis for the Islamist party in Johor was as bleak as the grey skies above.

"Personally, we have to be realistic, Johor PAS can't contest three-cornered fights where Malay voters are only around 50 (to 60) percent... the chances of PAS winning in these areas are slim," he said.

Sheikh Ibrahim (photo) warned that in such seats where non-Malays make up more than 40 percent of the voters, three-cornered fights and a split in Malay votes would give the advantage to Pakatan Harapan.

This is true he said, even for the four Johor state seats that PAS won in 2013.

Sheikh Ibrahim himself will not be defending the Sungai Abong seat, saying that he will take a break from politics due to personal reasons.

He denied speculation that he would be joining PAS-splinter group Amanah.

"I am still with PAS," he declared.

Meanwhile, his prognosis for the Malay majority seats, especially those with a strong Felda presence, was similarly bleak for both PAS and Harapan.

In these seats he said, Umno would have the advantage, and thus would ultimately remain in control of Johor.

While Sheikh Ibrahim's forecast was gloomy, as the skies cleared and the sun shone bright the next day, Malaysiakini heard a more positive prognosis for PAS' fate in Johor when visiting a small clinic nestled in the Chinese quarter of Muar town.

The attending doctor, Mohammad (photo), was realistic about non-Malay support for his party, but was optimistic that things weren't as bad as it was made out to be.

"Maybe our non-Malay support has decreased, but we see that with what PAS offers, how we stand by Islam in carrying out our duties, insya Allah society will see, they will evaluate our good work.

"We still have their (non-Malay) support. When I go out of the clinic, many among the non-Malays still lift their hands (to greet me) and say 'YB how are you?' and 'YB I still support you'," Muhammad said.

He said PAS was also actively working in the three other state seats it won in 2013 – Sungai Abong, Puteri Wangsa and Parit Yaani.

This includes carrying out charitable activities in collaboration with local mosques, such as providing a monthly supply of rice for the poor.

'PAS determined to defeat Umno'

Asked about three-cornered fights, Mohammad said that PAS was determined to defeat Umno and BN, and that it was incumbent on Harapan not to interfere with that.

As for Amanah, he said some believed Johor PAS was decimated by an exodus of top leaders to the splinter group.

However, for Mohammad, this split has only opened up opportunities for fresh faces.

"When they left, the leaders in waiting rose," he said.

The interviews with these two doctors by Malaysiakini took place before the redelineation exercise was passed in Parliament last Wednesday.

The redrawing of electoral boundaries could even the odds for Mohamad, as the Bandar Barat polling district – a Chinese-majority opposition stronghold – has been moved out of Maharani, into the Bentayan state constituency.

This could dampen the impact of non-Malay votes in a three-cornered fight.

However, Sheikh Ibrahim said that electoral rolls made available last year showed that there had been a significant increase in registered non-Malay voters, which he believes would nullify the effects of the redelineation exercise.

Sheikh Ibrahim's seat Sungai Abong, together with Bentayan, is part of the Bakri parliamentary constituency.

Mohammad's seat Maharani and the Sungai Balang state seat are part of the Muar parliamentary seat.