GE14 | Going into the May 9 general election, Pakatan Harapan is banking on a Malay tsunami to prevail over the recent electoral redelineation which favours the ruling BN coalition and carry the opposition pact to Putrajaya.

But in rural Johor, the potential for a rising tide of change among young Malays is being stemmed by their pro-Umno parents, a study has found.

The findings were reported in the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute's Trends in Southeast Asia paper, titled "Malaysia General Elections 2018: Understanding the Rural Vote," by researcher Serina Rahman.

In the paper, Serina noted that pressure from both family and the community was strong.

"Rural Malay families are generational Umno supporters and to go against family tradition and practice is tantamount to breaching the norms of filial piety.

"Many I spoke to admit to voting the way their families do because there is just no point in creating trouble within the family or breaking up friendships," she noted.

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In her focus group discussions in Johor, which were conducted in family homes, she said eavesdropping elders at these sessions would often remind younger participants of "the debts they owed to the ruling party."

There was also an emphasis on the need to remain loyal to those who had helped the Malays out of poverty.

Of the youths she interviewed in Felda areas in east Johor, many were displeased with the government over their economic hardships and difficulties in making ends meet.

"Displeasure at the government because of this was expressed in hushed voices with furtive glances towards the older generation in the next room.

"It was clear that there was strong family pressure to remain in support of the ruling party," she said.

These youths nevertheless did not believe the opposition had a good enough track record and prefer instead to stick with the "proven success" of the ruling BN government.

‘Whoever I support, they support too’

But not all rural Malay parents are anchoring their children to Umno and BN.

In Kedah, one family matriarch interviewed proudly proclaimed that she had influenced her family to vote against Umno.

"In the past I was wholly in support of Umno. My children, husband – we were all the same. But now things are difficult.

"I am going the other way and my husband and children are all voting with me. I take my whole family. Whoever I support, they support too," the unnamed woman was cited as saying.

Generally, the Kedah youths interviewed for the research paper, both men and women, were in favour of voting for Bersatu, although some elders found it hard to leave Umno.

"While the older participants conceded that they were disappointed with the trajectory of the nation, they were hesitant to complain or admit that they might want to vote another way.

"The younger participants, however, were excited and impatient for their turn at the ballot box."

The difference between sentiments in Johor and Kedah, appear to be the influence of Bersatu chairperson, former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad in his home state.

Mahathir's son Mukhriz was menteri besar until his ouster in 2016, and respondents had good memories of "visible progress" under his administration.