GE14 | A Selangor government-owned thinktank has predicted that Pakatan Harapan will win the legislative assembly elections, but without the two-thirds majority achieved by Pakatan Rakyat in 2013.

Institut Darul Ehsan's (IDE) prediction, based on its monthly surveys, was for Harapan to win 32 seats in the 56-seat assembly while BN will win 24 seats, double what it won in 2013.

BN was expected to make gains, even though the coalition's popularity had dropped in recent months across Malay, Chinese and Indian respondents in the state. The model used for the prediction does not account for advance or postal voters.

IDE vice-chairperson Mohammad Redzuan Othman explained that BN's expected gains could be attributed to multi-cornered contests, the recent redrawing of electoral boundaries, and an expected low voter turnout due to the midweek polling date.

"PAS will not be able to defeat Harapan (for seats) but it will help give BN some wins," he told a forum entitled “Three-cornered fights: What is the people’s choice?” at the IDE office in Shah Alam today.

When asked the number of seats PAS was expected to win in Selangor, Redzuan pointed to the Islamist party’s dive in popularity from 59 percent from 2013 to just 12 percent in April this year.

He also said many of PAS' GE13 wins were due to non-Malay votes. With the Islamist party's exit from the opposition coalition, this was unlikely to happen again.

“It would be hard for PAS to win any state seats (this time),” he said.

Of the 24 seats BN is expected to win, he said three-cornered fights alone would contribute to 18 of them.

Only five of these 18 were seats won by BN in GE13.

The possible new wins are Sabak, Ijok, Gombak Setia, Pelabuhan Klang, Morib, Taman Templer, Dusun Tua, Paya Jaras, Sungai Kandis (formerly Seri Andalas), Sungai Pelek, Sementa, Kota Anggerik and Selat Klang.

Redelineation will benefit BN

Using Sementa as an example, Redzuan showed the audience that nine voting districts won by the opposition had been moved out following redelineation.

Meanwhile, five districts which voted in favour of BN were added into the seat.

Redelineation had also significantly altered the seat’s racial composition, raising the number of Malay voters by 31 percent to 77 percent.

Chinese and Indian voters were both more than halved.

In GE13, PKR's Daroyah Alwi won Sementa with a 7,846 majority.

She is seeking a second term and will battle it out against BN-Umno's Saroni Judi, PAS' Wan Hasrina Wan Hassam and PRM candidate N Nagamuthu.

IDE’s results discounted the effect of new opposition component parties Bersatu and Amanah, and the emergence of former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad as an opposition leader.