GE14 | With only three days of campaigning left, PKR vice-president Shamsul Iskandar Md Akin is racing against time to flip "grey areas" in the parliamentary seat of Hang Tuah Jaya in his favour.

In the last general election, Shamsul won the seat by a 5,447-vote majority, garnering 46,167 votes to former Malacca chief minister Mohd Ali Rustam's 40,720 votes.

Shamsul is now up for a rematch, but the rules of the game are now stacked against him after the Election Commission's redelineation exercise shifted five pro-PKR polling districts - Taman Melaka Baru, Batu Berendam, Taman Merdeka, Taman Asean and Malim Jaya - out of the constituency.

Collectively, they made up 13,841 PKR votes and 5,856 BN votes which translates to a deficit of 7,975 votes against Shamsul, enough to erase his majority and with some manoeuvring room for BN.

But Shamsul believes he can become a giant-killer the second time if he gets the needed swing in Malay votes.

He pointed out that of the remaining 32 polling districts in Hang Tuah Jaya, he and Mohd Ali both won an equal 16 districts each in the last election.

“In 2013, I won with 30 percent of Malay support, 85 percent Chinese and 50 percent Indians.

“I believe if I can push the Malay support to 35 percent and maintain the support of the Chinese at 85 percent and the Indian support at 50 percent, then on paper, it is not a problem for me to win,” Shamsul told Malaysiakini after a night of whirlwind ceramah.

He headed straight to a nearby mamak stall after the ceramah ended around midnight, explaining that he had not yet had his dinner.

The five percent mantra

By the time his food arrived, the PKR vice-president, who mentioned he had been awake since 5.30am, could barely keep his eyes open.

In this election, Harapan in Malacca has focused a lot more on ceramah kelompok (group ceramah) in close-knitted Malay-majority areas instead of the usual mega-ceramah in town centres, as a personal touch is needed to connect with such voters.

Due to the group ceramah being much smaller in scale, Shamsul (photo) has to make it up with quantity by attending several ceramah a night.

As he is also the candidate for the state seat of Rim, located within another parliamentary seat, Shamsul has had to travel back and forth between the two constituencies.

Throughout the conversation, "five percent" swing was Shamsul's mantra.

“I do not think it is difficult to get that numbers, based on the Bersatu and (Harapan chairperson) Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s factor,” he said.

On Friday, Mahathir, along with other former Umno top guns Daim Zainuddin and Rafidah Aziz was brought in as reinforcements.

They were asked to speak in Bukit Piatu, which polling strict saw BN winning by 1,476 to PKR 707 votes in the last general election at the parliamentary level.

“It is to ensure that more Malays will come out and listen to Mahathir and Rafidah and more prominent speakers, even (PKR president) Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, for that matter,” Shamsul said.

Almost 10,000 people turned up for the ceramah.

But Shamsul isn't only relying on star power, as his exhaustion would show.

Targeting the unconverted

Earlier in the week, Shamsul had stumped at a ceramah at around 10.30am in Taman Tun Rahah, a "grey polling district". He was narrowly defeated at that polling district, garnering 1,029 votes to BN's 1,173 votes in the last general election.

Although only about 30 people showed up for the ceramah kelompok held on a field in the middle of the housing area, his speech was well-received by the audience members.

Despite the small numbers, several present said they were previously BN voters.

Bank worker Anwar Md Nor, who had attended the ceramah with two friends, said he had been an Umno man all his life, but has now decided to switch his vote to Harapan.

“We cannot give (our votes) to them (BN) anymore. We don’t want to pay for goods and services tax (GST) anymore. No more,” the 60-year-old said to Malaysiakini.

Another attendee, 49-year-old T Murali had also decided to switch his vote from BN to Harapan this election.

This election will be his fourth time voting and his first time voting for the opposition, he said.

“Just this once, I will change because we need to think about our children, not just ourselves.

“My salary is more than RM6,000 a month and I am the sole breadwinner in my family.

“RM6,000 a month is not enough. I have to pay for my house, for my car, and I have kids who are still going to school,” the supervisor said.

The petrol costs to send his children to school is around RM400 a month, and if he wanted to send them to better schools further away, the cost would be even higher, he said.

“I have three children only. And what about tuition fees? What if I want to send them overseas to study?” he said, lamenting that the best thing a parent can do for their children is to ensure they get a good education.

“We just try once (voting in the opposition). Give them five years, see what they can do. If they cannot do anything, then in another five years, we change back,” he said.

Also present was a PAS-turned Harapan supporter, 37-year-old Hafiz Abdul Mutalib, who was not happy that PAS was no longer cooperating with the main opposition.

“Non-Muslims are also Malaysian citizens so we need to cooperate to develop the country. We cannot go at it alone,” the trader, who had attended the ceramah with his family, told Malaysiakini.

Formidable BN machinery

Meanwhile, Mohd Ali (photo), who has always been known for his camaraderie with the grassroots, had an equally gruelling if not more punishing schedule compared to Shamsul.

The 68-year-old has been attending dinner events and community programs as well as visiting mosques, among others.

His daily schedule, which starts at 5.45am, usually involve a breakfast session at different locations within Hang Tuah Jaya which doubles as a meet-the-rakyat event.

Mohd Ali is also backed by the formidable and well-oiled BN machinery, whom he has also met with over the past few days of campaigning.

However, many of these events appear to be a case of preaching to the converted, a faux pas which the opposition committed in the last general election with its mega ceramah but has now adjusted with group ceramah. 

For example, at a program organised by Bachang MIC at Pengkalan Batu for Mohd Ali to meet the local Indian community, Mohd Ali was well received and almost all of the 60-plus people were in BN T-shirts, vest or cap.

Personal touch

A source from Mohd Ali’s campaign told Malaysiakini that the former chief minister is not using the usual way of campaigning as they had previously done.

This time, Mohd Ali is doing a lot of “group meetings” with voters in Hang Tuah Jaya.

“He visits their houses and listens to their grouses personally.

“Whenever he can’t make it, his machinery is there to represent him,” the source said.

This is different from BN’s previous approach of aggressively holding ceramah sessions during the campaigning period.

For example, Mohd Ali does not have any major ceramah events scheduled at all this election.

The candidate himself said he was utilising the “personal” touch approach in this campaign.

“We are using our machinery, and I myself use personal contact. We go house to house, have gatherings with our voters through group meetings.

“The ones I couldn’t meet, I’m sorry. We will meet after the general election. But vote for me first,” Mohd Ali said, adding he has more than 10 programmes a day.

However, with the redelination favouring BN, Mohd Ali only needs to hold on to his base and try to maintain the status quo to win.

As campaigning comes to a close, the battle for Hang Tuah Jaya is expected to be a closely fought one.

But if the rumbles of discontent turn into a Malay wave or tsunami, it will completely change up the constituency.