GE14 | In the Malay heartlands of Muar, Johor, there are signs of a revolt brewing among disgruntled Umno supporters.

Parit Yusof is the smaller of two townships in Muar's semi-rural Sungai Balang state constituency.

It is situated more than 30 minutes away from Muar's other state constituency Maharani, its urban hub.

Like most polling districts in Sungai Balang, the majority of those in Parit Yusof voted BN, with 1,101 votes, compared to 572 votes for PKR.

Some like Hamzah Masturi, 70, believe this trend would continue.

"Umno is strong here, and God willing, they will win... Till the end of my life, I will be with BN," she told Malaysiakini.

However, during a walkabout by PKR Sungai Balang candidate Naim Jusri at the weekly morning market in Parit Yusof, some former Umno supporters openly expressed their desire to see change.

Ahmad Mahfuz, in his late 60s, and his wife Norashimah Saim told Naim that they would be supporting him when he handed them flyers.

"I used to support BN because they helped with my 10 children, but because of (Umno president) Najib Abdul Razak, I want to change...

“All 10 of my children who live in Kuala Lumpur are also changing," Ahmad told Malaysiakini.

Similar sentiments have been noted in other areas of Muar such as in the Malay village of Parit Sakai Darat, which is closer to Maharani town.

"I used to support Umno. I (still support) Umno, but the ones on top are problematic, I am willing (to vote Pakatan Harapan) because Umno is monopolised by these (bad) leaders," a villager who wished be known as Ishak, 70, said.

The likes of elderly voters like Ahmad and Ishak, however, are outliers in a community with deep roots in Umno.

Ahmad's wife, Norashimah, said that it is more difficult for other old timers to vote against BN.

"The younger generation may support change, but it will be tough with the old people," she pointed out.

Harapan candidate popular among youths

One such youth that believes in change is Azman Md Nor, 30, from Parit Unas. "I think Harapan can win, a lot of youths support Harapan," he said.

The opposition pact's candidate Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman (photo), is popular among youths, who see in him their hopes for better opportunities in the future.

PKR estimates that there are almost 4,000 voters under the age of 30 in Sungai Balang. Almost 3,300 others below 40.

A significant swing among these voters from BN to Harapan could turn the tide in both Sungai Balang and Muar.

BN had won Muar with just 1,646 votes and, Sungai Balang with 1,635 votes.

Overall, the shift towards Harapan appeared uneven from village to village, but generally those from various kampung parit (trench villages) in Muar acknowledge that there are Umno defectors among them.

"Sixty percent of my village (Parit Shafiee) is Umno, 20 percent Bersatu and 20 percent PAS," estimated Mohd Wazir Sulaiman, 39.

Wazir, who said he supported BN, is not sure how the polls would turn out in Muar and Sungai Balang this year.

Parit Shafiee is a new polling district, carved out from stream two of the Kampung Parit Bulat polling district. In 2013, this stream voted 340 for BN and 165 for PAS.

Meanwhile, an army veteran from Kampung Paya Lebar, who wished to be known as Tun, claimed that most people in his village are no longer with Umno.

He claimed that the turnout at BN organised talks or dinners were low, with many people preferring to go to Harapan ceramahs instead.

"We have given Umno the chance to rule for 60 years, what have they done? We want a change, like better wages," said the 51-year-old army veteran, adding that dissatisfaction with Najib's leadership is another reason why he was switching his vote.

Tun's village is part of the Sungai Balang polling district, which voted 878 for BN, and 458 for PKR in 2013.

Dislodging Umno's incumbent a tall order

While a wind of change is being felt, taking down three-term incumbent Muar MP Razali Ibrahim would still be a challenge as he remains popular with locals.

At a recent walkabout in Parit Amat on the outskirts of Maharani, Razali was gifted some putu bambu desserts from a trader, who said the sweets were for his father who is also like a father to her.

Besides Razali, Harapan and Syed Saddiq must also face PAS, whose Maharani candidate Dr Mohamad Taslim has held the state seat for two terms.

PAS' campaign in Muar in this election is noticeably low key, focusing on house-to-house visits instead of holding ceramah or daily walkabouts.

"When we hand flyers, there's no personal touch, which is why we visit homes instead," Mohamad said.

Muar PAS candidate Abdul Aziz Talib said the candidates visit about 15-20 houses a day, while their machinery reaches out to more.

Some suggested that PAS resorted to a low-key campaign because its membership in Maharani has been severely reduced by the split with Amanah.

But while PAS might not be visible, the party, however, still has deep roots in Muar's heartlands.

PAS could be a spoiler

In Kampung Parit Bulat, a trader, who wished to be known as Shafiya, said in her village there was "only Umno and PAS."

There is speculation that these hardcore supporters had caused the defeat of PKR's 2013 candidate in Muar, Hizwan Abdullah, due to dissatisfaction over then-Pakatan Rakyat's choice of nominee.

At the state level, 20,812 votes were cast for Pakatan that was represented by PAS in both Maharani and Sungai Balang.

However, PKR's Hizwan received only 19,221 votes at the parliamentary level. He lost to Razali by 1,646 votes.

While some split votes for parliament and state seats is normal, the shift in opposition support was quite noticeable in several Sungai Balang polling districts namely Parit Pechah, Sri Menanti, Sungai Balang, Sungai Balang Besar, Parit Yusof, and Kampung Parit Bulat.

PKR lost a total of 384 votes in these six polling districts.

Split voting also occurred on a smaller scale in Sungai Balang's 12 other polling districts.

This was even less pronounced in Maharani - which has a bigger non-Malay population.

If Razali and Syed Saddiq are neck-to-neck in support, PAS could be a spoiler on May 9.