Fall of the titans - Invoke predicts Hisham, big heads to roll
GE14 | Apart from predicting a slim victory for Pakatan Harapan, Invoke Malaysia also claimed that big heads would roll in this Wednesday's general election.
According to the pollster, Johor Umno stalwarts' heads are among those on the chopping block, including Umno vice-president Hishammuddin Hussein...
GE14 | Apart from predicting a slim victory for Pakatan Harapan, Invoke Malaysia also claimed that big heads would roll in this Wednesday's general election.
According to the pollster, Johor Umno stalwarts' heads are among those on the chopping block, including Umno vice-president Hishammuddin Hussein.
Hishammuddin, who is also caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak's cousin, would be defending his Sembrong seat.
Others on the list are caretaker Johor menteri besar Mohd Khaled Nordin (Pasir Gudang) and Shahrir Abdul Samad (Johor Bahru).
On the BN front, Invoke claimed MCA would lose both its number one and number two - Liow Tiong Lai (Bentong) and Wee Ka Siong (Ayer Hitam).
MIC president Dr S Subramaniam, who would be defending his Segamat seat, is also expected to be shown the exit.
Read more: Invoke predicts slim win for Harapan, wipeout for PAS
As for PAS, Invoke is predicting that the party would not win a single seat, meaning that it is predicting that PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang – the five-term Marang MP – would lose as well.
Invoke is also predicting Amanah's Husam Musa would win the three-corner contest in Kota Bahru, thereby defeating PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan.
Invoke's findings are based on its latest voter inclination modeling exercise and survey results for Peninsular Malaysia.
The model had predicted that the difference in Malay support levels between BN and Harapan was no more than 13.1 percent.
Malay support for Harapan ranged varied 28.1 percent to up 47.3 percent, according to different states, which was generally better than the estimated 30 percent the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat received in 2013.
Assuming that non-Malays will mostly go against BN, Invoke had predicted that Harapan will win 111 seats in Peninsular Malaysia.
Using Sembrong as an example, Invoke founder Rafizi Ramli explained that the seat had 61 percent Malay voters and Hishammuddin had retained the seat in 2013 by winning 85 percent of the Malay vote.
Invoke estimates that Harapan has about 41 percent Malay support in Johor, while their detailed study of Sembrong showed that only 55 percent of Malays supported BN this time around.
"This means the vote differential between BN and Harapan is very small," Rafizi said, adding that he expected Hishamuddin to lose by a small margin.

