GE14 | Think-tank Ilham Centre's research showed that Pakatan Harapan could conquer Johor with a simple majority while retaining its hold on Penang and Selangor with a two-thirds majority.

In a statement this afternoon, the centre's executive director Hisommudin Bakar said BN might be able to wrestle Kelantan from PAS. The coalition is expected to maintain Terengganu, Perlis and Pahang.

As for Kedah and Perak, he said Harapan has a 50-50 chance of taking the two states. BN is also facing "slight problems" in Negeri Sembilan and Malacca.

Elaborating on Johor, which is the birthplace of Umno, Hisommudin said feedback from the ground revealed that support for BN in the state is at "critical" level.

"Non-Malay support for Harapan is at the maximum level and BN is facing an obvious erosion of Malay support.

“Muhyiddin Yassin, who is leading Harapan's charge in Johor, and his team, have succeeded in penetrating Umno's strongest fortress in Malaysia," he added. 

Based on feedback on the ground, Hisommudin said the majority of Johor voters do not "hate" Umno, but blamed the party's president Najib Abdul Razak, for "ruining the party".

"This is compounded with the insults lobbed at statesman and former Umno president (Dr Mahathir Mohamad) by current Umno leaders. This has garnered sympathy for Mahathir and given free publicity for Harapan," he said.

Mahathir (photo) is now the chairperson of opposition coalition Harapan.

Hisommudin cited the massive support for Harapan's ceramah sessions in Pasir Gudang, Muar and Pagoh, and its surrounding areas, as proof of the coalition's growing influence.

Umno has also "panicked" and failed to provide a counter-narrative to these "assaults" that happen under their very noses, he alleged.

This, he added, will result in BN's marginal seats being lost to the opposition, and the reduction in the majority, in seats it previously won easily.

"Johor Umno's image and track record are at an excellent level. It's just that the state BN is about to be 'punished' due to Najib's image."

According to Hisommudin, the research was done in 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, which shows that Harapan leads in 77 of the seats, while BN, in 56 seats.

Islamist party PAS and its coalition Gagasan Sejahtera looks "comfortable" in seven parliamentary seats in the East Coast, while 25 seats are set to be the base for a tough fight between the three competing coalitions.

"If there is a last-minute boost, Harapan is expected to surpass the 100 parliamentary seat mark, which it needs to make it to Putrajaya," he said that the research used various indicators, including the racial breakdown of supporters, the strength of candidates, local and national issues, the composition of early, postal and overseas voters, redelineation, and the percentage of voter turnout, to arrive at the results.

Change in voter demography

Another factor that must be taken into account in such surveys, said Hisommudin, was the change of voter demography.

"The group of senior citizen voters who identified with parties have constantly shrunk, since the 1999 general election. The generation which changed their votes during Anwar Ibrahim's Reformasi movement has replaced this segment.

"This means that BN can no longer be comfortable and rely, on this group of voters. Votes that made up BN's 'fix deposit' have shrunk due to deaths (of older voters)," he said.

The vacuum left by their demises have been filled with younger voters, who had different mindsets, outlook, and are "far bolder" than their previous generations, he added.

"Statistics in the Election Commission's electoral roll shows that the percentage of voters under the age of 39 is 41.4 percent, nationwide. The percentage in Kelantan and Terengganu are higher than the national average, at 49.5 percent, and 53.3 percent, respectively. This shows that young voters are determinants of winners and losers in this general election.

'Voters have already chosen'

According to Hisommudin, the scenario during the campaigning period for this election is "colder" than previous elections.

"Provocation and stress between party supporters do not happen much. Campaigning has thus far happened in an orderly manner.

"This may be due to the factor that the majority of voters have already made their choices on who to vote for, come May 9. They are just waiting for the date, to make their respective stands."

The various initiatives to encourage voter turnout, including discounts on food and flights, and crowdfunding to bear the costs for those who need to travel back home to vote, have also "excited" first-time voters to carry out their democratic duties, he noted.

Redelineation does not favour BN

While an overview of the redelineation exercise by the Election Commission may make it seems like it benefits BN, it is not really the case, Hisommudin said.

"For parliamentary seats with less than 75 percent Malay voters, it is detrimental for BN, as it splits Malay votes by three.

"Although the opposition at first looked 'broken' after PAS exited the (now defunct) Pakatan Rakyat, (PAS splinter party) Amanah quickly filled the vacuum left by PAS. Even then, the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections sided BN.

"However, this scenario changed drastically after Bersatu was formed and Mahathir was appointed Harapan chairperson. This factor shattered the theory that a three-way fight will benefit BN," he said.

"The reality is, the redelineation this time around does not have as much impact as the 2004 exercise, as the strategy does not increase the number of seats which can contribute to a two-thirds mandate for the ruling coalition."

Battle of the mediums

This election also bears witness to the battle of different approaches taken by the opposing parties, he noted.

While BN had used the mainstream media under its control to its advantage, PAS has used the strength of its machinery to attract voters, while Harapan is using the social media sphere to do the trick, said Hisommudin.

"The question here is which medium will win the heart of voters. Is it the social media, mainstream media, or the strength of machinery and grassroots support.

"Based on our assessment, Harapan is capable of generating a strong wave through their campaign, although it lacks the machinery at the grassroots.

"PAS, as the second opposition coalition, has failed to create any ripple and is solely relying on loyalty from grassroots members to stay in power.

"As for BN, their campaign media is not consistent. Najib's image is only seen on campaigning materials in the Federal Territories, Terengganu, Pahang and along the North-South Expressway.

"The spectre of racism played up by BN and now PAS, also does not have any impact in the current campaign narrative.

"The persona of Mahathir and the existence of Bersatu had convinced Malay voters to support Harapan, and destroyed the negative dogma against DAP."

A battle between Najib and Dr M 

The rivalry between BN chairperson Najib and Mahathir has indirectly boosted the support from voters in the election this time around, said Hisommudin.

"Najib's popularity has taken a nose-dive since Mahathir took charge of Harapan. Najib appears less 'cooler' from Mahathir's unrelenting attacks.

"This has caused BN to get defensive, and resort to personally attacking Mahathir, which in turn, has made the latter's popularity to rise.

"This is evident in the fact that Mahathir, in his last round of campaigning, has managed to attract the likes of 'giants' like Rafidah Aziz, Rais Yatim and Daim Zainuddin.

"Mahathir has done something that no opposition leader has done before, in taking a critical decision.

"The naming of a prime ministerial candidate and the use of one logo are strokes of genius, and are great slaps to BN," Hisommudin concluded.