As the next Sarawak state election draws nearer, there is speculation over how the Barisan Nasional (BN) government will perform and the future plans of the state's longest serving chief minister, Abdul Taib Mahmud.

While there is no doubt in most people's minds that the BN will be returned to power after the elections, political observers wonder how the politically 'invincible' Taib Mahmud will hold out in the coming polls.

A Miri-based academic with intimate knowledge of PBB/Malay politics told malaysiakini today that there seems to be much discontent among urban Malays over certain government policies.

As such, he said that several Malay seats in Kuching such as Satok, Semariang, Tupong and Demak Laut may not be safe in view of current Malay sentiments as "they are fed up with Taib Mahmud's games".

"Some are saying enough is enough," he said. "The Malays are also fed up with the DBKU (Commission of Kuching City North) which has acted very harshly against them in recent days, especially with regard to assessment rates and petty trade."

The academic, a Melanau like the chief minister, said he believed there are two risky Melanau seats as well. This is because of growing unhappiness on the ground over certain policies. The Melanau seats are located in the Mukah and Dalat/Oya districts.

Tainted personal life

Talk is also rife that Taib may field one of his sons - either the corporate figure- cum-banker Sulaiman or elder brother Mahmud Bekir - to contest a state seat.

Sulaiman, 36, the CMS Bhd chairperson and RHB Group chairperson, may contest in the Bekenu seat, but some quarters say Taib would probably prefer Mahmud Bekir, 39, who has a better public relations touch than his brother.

"Getting Sulaiman involved in politics would mean sacrificing someone who is so important to the family business," the academic said.

Sulaiman is also believed to have a tainted personal life and his police case for allegedly assaulting a former TV personality in a Kuala Lumpur nightclub last year was highlighted in a national daily ( image ).

Sources also said that Taib wanted one of his brothers, Ali, a businessman, to contest "but Ali is not in good health".

The biggest problem confronting Taib at the moment, according to the same academic, is who to appoint as his successor as party leader and chief minister.

"I heard (Natural Resources and Environment Minister) Adenan Satem is already out of the list, like (State Tourism Minister) Abang Johari," he said, adding that he had been informed that Taib may bring back into the fold one of his relatives Wan Mahdihi Mazhdar, a former state assemblyperson, to contest in the next state election.

It is public knowledge, however, that Wan Mahdihi, who once ran the state-owned Hornbill Skyways, has suffered financial setbacks, and this issue has to be addressed before he can resume active politics.

Some quarters have even suggested that all this is calculated to weaken Abang Johari's (left) position as he is widely regarded as the leader of the Kuching Malays.

Recent speculation over a snap poll, according to many political observers, is a test of the state of preparedness of the opposition parties which are quietly holding meetings to discuss an alliance to take on the BN.

Vulnerable Dayak seats

Dayak seats held mainly by two state BN component parties - Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) are also said to be vulnerable.

Dayak candidates in the opposition front are likely to stand under the Sarawak National Party (Snap) ticket if the government decides to delay the approval of the registration of the Malaysian Dayak Congress (MDC) or to turn down its application.

Both SPDP and PRS are worried about any groundswell of support in the Dayak countryside for the opposition grouping as a result of growing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of land issues, particularly the development of native customary rights (NCR) land for logging and plantation.

"Obviously the government propaganda machinery is being oiled to try and convince Dayak voters not to listen to the opposition talk about their land being taken away from them," one political observer noted.

The largely Chinese-based Supp too is likely to face a keen challenge from the DAP, which has one representative in the 62-seat state legislative assembly and one member of Parliament.

But it will be tough for DAP because when it comes to state elections, the Chinese electorate would not want to rock the boat and would prefer to vote Chinese BN candidates, except in exceptional circumstances.

The next state assembly will have 71 seats, an increase of nine.