One day before the Umno presidential elections, a poll has put acting party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as the frontrunner for the party’s top post, and Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah behind him.

Think tank Ilham Centre ran an eight-day survey on preferred presidential candidates and found that Zahid polled 51 percent while Tengku Razaleigh, better known as Ku Li, polled 35 percent.

Incumbent youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar managed just six percent while eight percent of the Umno divisions polled remained undecided.

“At the final moments before the voting begins, there will usually be a process of pujuk-memujuk (cajoling) and compromise at the division level.

“However, if this party tradition can be broken, an ‘upset’ can be staged with a narrow majority in favour of Ku Li,” analysed the outfit’s executive director Hisommuddin Bakar in a statement today.

A total of 581 Umno delegates from 101 divisions across Peninsular Malaysia were involved in the poll. Ilham did not state its polling method.

Umno has more than 150,000 delegates from a total of 191 divisions nationwide.

Grassroots split between Zahid and Ku Li

According to Hisommuddin, insights from the study revealed that grassroots members were in favour of Zahid as he was seen as a loyal and capable leader in the party.

He was also seen as more religious than the other two main contenders.

Top party leaders in Pahang support the former deputy prime minister but there is some dissonance among the grassroots there, as seen by the state’s former Menteri Besar Adnan Yaakob’s move to publicly declare his support for Ku Li by virtue of appearing at a Pahang Umno event together.

In Johor, where Umno was founded, Hisommuddin said that word from the ground was also in favour of the Kelantan prince. Former Johor Menteri Besar Khaled Nordin was seated beside Ku Li when he announced his decision to contest the Umno presidency.

Octogenarian Ku Li was also seen as an experienced leader best suited to challenge Prime Minister and Pakatan Harapan chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

“Ku Li is supported by division chief candidates who are challenging their incumbents. They say they support him because they want a leader who is free from scandal who is not linked to (former party president) Najib Abdul Razak,” Hisommuddin said.

He further analysed that while Khairy may be popular in the media, delegates generally find it difficult to accept his progressive reform ideas.

“Khairy managed a minimum percentage of the vote and has split the vote between (Zahid and Ku Li).

“This offers an advantage to Zahid,” he added.

Zahid, Ku Li and Khairy are regarded as the three main contenders in the five-candidate race. The other two are Bandar Tun Razak’s Mohamed Iqbal Maricair and Iskandar Puteri’s Mohd Yusof Musa @ Jamaluddin.