analysis

Sarawak Malay voters, especially in urban and suburban areas, are in a dilemma. Most politicians both within the incumbent Barisan Nasional and the opposition, readily admit the Malays, who form only 20 percent of Sarawak's 2.1 million population, are at what may be described as a crossroads in politics.

In Sarawak politics since Independence in 1963, the Malays have always been loyal to their parties which, at that time, were Parti Negara and Parti Berjasa. These two parties merged later to form Parti Bumiputra which in turn merged with Parti Pesaka Anak Sarawak to form Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB), now led by caretaker Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud.

Will voting in predominantly Malay/Muslim constituencies in Sarawak follow the trend in Peninsular Malaysia? Or will the majority of them stick to the only party they know best, certainly have a close affinity with, and whose many Malay leaders like Abang Johari Abang Openg, Sharifah Mordiah, Daub Abdul Rahman and Dr Abang Abdul Rauf are PBB are closely identified with the Kuching community.

Yet, many of the voters are unsure now on how they are going to vote. The results of the last parliamentary elections in Sarawak are very telling, with the swing to the opposition, especially newcomer to Sarawak politics Parti Keadilan Nasional narrowly resulting in BN/PBB losing in some key Malay seats in Kuching.

This has never happened before on such a scale. Still, will the trend continue? This has to be a concern for the PBB Malay leaders because a definitive swing towards the opposition, whether it is KeAdilan, PAS or the pro-Umno Group of Independents led by former defence minister and former PBB deputy president Abang Abu Bakar Abu Mustapha, could reduce PBB's number. PBB will contest in 30 seats - the most by any of the four BN component parties - out of a total of 62 in the state elections, now almost certain to take place in September.

Growing dissatisfaction

It is now readily admitted that there is growing dissatisfaction within large sections of the Malay community with the top leadership of PBB and the most frequently cited name is Taib's.

There has even been talk of potential victims if a dangerously large chunk of Malay votes should go to opposition candidates. The thing is, will traditional supporters of PBB forsake the party out of their dissatisfaction with the top leadership and vote just any opposition candidate?

Yet no one has been able to pinpoint exactly the issues that stirred the dislike, other than land and family-related businesses and some favours for so-called loyalists. According to most observers, perhaps it's the way they feel about how state minister and PBB deputy president Abang Johari has been treated, about what has happened to Abang Abu Bakar within PBB, and about special favours for the Melanau community to which Taib belongs.

Taib's critics, of course, have accused him of running scared, explaining there is in fact no other reason for moving away from his traditional state seat at the Malay/Muslim-majority Asajaya to Melanau-majority Balingian.

But Taib left it to the elected caucus of his party to decide which of the four predominantly Melanau seats in the Lower Rejang Basin he should stand in. At a special party meeting last week, they chose Balingian as the incumbent has indicated for some time he wanted to step down due to health reasons.

And Taib's supporters within the party have made it clear that Taib's services are required even more in the Lower Rejang areas which are comparatively less developed than the Kota Samarahan and Asajaya areas near Kuching.

Focus

The focus of attention on Malay seats this coming election will be on Pantai Damai, Demak Laut, Tupong, Satok, Samariang, Asajaya and Muara Tuang. Except perhaps for Muara Tuang, where the incumbent is state minister and PBB senior vice-president Adenan Satem, Satok (Abang Johari) and Tupong (incumbent Daud Abdul Rahman), the other areas are considered as touch-and-go.

There will be formidable challenge, especially from both Parti Keadilan and PAS. Sarawak Keadilan liaison chief Hafsah Harun, a former PBB woman head and former state minister, is expected to stand in either Pantai Damai against a new face from PBB or Samariang, where Sharifah Mordiah, an assistant minister and PBB woman head now, is likely to be fielded in place of Dona Babel who will not be contesting. She is the incumbent for Pantai Damai.

At the special Sarawak Barisan Nasional meeting chaired by Abdul Taib last Thursday at PBB headquarters in Jalan Bako, Kuching, Taib told leaders of the various component parties - PBB, Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP), Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) and Sarawak National Party (SNAP) - that candidates must be those who can win.

According to the sources, Taib himself looked a little tired. It's probably the problems that are surfacing here and there within the BN, they said, pointing to minor bickering within some component parties over some choices of candidates.

One example is in Meluan, where the SNAP incumbent four-term assembly representative Geman Itam has refused to accept the party's decision to drop him and has announced he will challenge whoever the BN put up in his place.

SNAP has decided to replace Geman with the party's secretary-general and former Ulu Rajang member of parliament Justine Jinggut, who is from Kapit, a different area altogether from Meluan. Geman himself is still believed to have some support, but generally it is agreed a younger and more dynamic person be brought him to take over the seat.

Some of SNAP senior leaders are said not to favour a change in Meluan, and this has prompted Taib to say that anyone going against the BN candidates either as candidate or supporting non-BN candidates in the campaign, directly or indirectly, will be sacked.

This statement has come in the wake of increasing talk that Taib's own party members in Limbang, northern Sarawak, may find it difficult to throw their support behind Richard Wong, son of SNAP president and veteran politician James Wong Kim Min who has decided to call it a day, for the predominantly Malay/Muslim seat in Limbang.

PBDS, an Iban-based party led by Leo Moggie, a federal minister, is likely to field itself facing some internal problems by not fielding the party's deputy president Daniel Tajem, who had wanted to have a go at his old constituency of Bukit Bagunan. PBDS flag-bearer for that constituency is a former bank officer Mong Dagang.

Mong is close to Dr James Masing, a state minister and the party's information chief and whom Daniel beat with a convincing win for the post of deputy president two years ago.The question is: Will Tajem's supporters in Bukit Bagunan support the opposition as a sign of protest?

Win-only strategy

Most of Sarawak BN top leaders have spoken of a clean sweep while the rest are a little guarded in their comments, saying that there are definitely a lot of imponderables ahead. "While politics is often said to be the art of the possible, at the same time it is also unpredictable," according to one seasoned observer.

"Taib simply does not want to take any chances," he said, adding that the strategy of moving from Asajaya to Balingian reflects that win-only strategy. "He is studying each and every constituency very close and has people running on the ground to report to him independently."

Like most other BN leaders, Taib realises there is a tide of change in the thinking of today's electorate. Following the national and parliamentary elections, will Sarawak buck the trends in voting?