opinion

The Sarawak Barisan Nasional government may return to power with ease, but the forthcoming state elections also marks the most active participation of opposition parties from Peninsular Malaysia in Sarawak's politics. The significance of such a development is more than a matter of domestic concern. A strong opposition could have a bearing on Sarawak's relationship with Kuala Lumpur.

Since early 1960s, Sarawak's politics has been confined to local political parties representing the local population, mainly Ibans, Malays, Melanaus and Chinese. Today, it is completely different. Part of the changes was apparently caused by the alleged rift between the Malay and Melanau communities both in and out of the ruling Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu.

And this will definitely be exploited by the opposition, especially Keadilan and PAS, though so far there is no clear indication of how they will approach the situation. Former PBB strongman, Abang Abu Bakar, has also added his group's weight to the fray and reportedly plans to field independents in 45 constituencies.

And what is the opposition focusing on? Except for Abang Abu Bakar, who is reportedly linked to an effort to bring Umno into Sarawak, the others seem to have no special agenda. But as an observer points out, " ... the number of opposition parties which will contest the coming state election is impressive."

In addition to the Abang Abu Bakar's group, the presence of Keadilan and PAS is causing worry to some sectors in PBB due to the possibility they may split the votes among the Malay and Melanau communities, who are the core supporters of PBB.

And as to what is the proximate cause of the friction between the two communities, acting caretaker chief minister Taib Mahmud's succession problem may well be a factor. Observers also say the litmus test for relations within PBB will be indicated by the coming elections.

Drive a wedge

The irony is that PBB may have inadvertently helped open a way for opposition parties from the peninsula to enter Sarawak's politics. The friction between leaders of Malay and Melanau origin within PBB has provided this long awaited opportunity.

Previously, Keadilan and PAS both would not stand a chance of getting support from the Malay community in Sarawak. But both parties are now using this opportunity to drive a wedge between the two communities.

And this is a start. Definitely, there is a lot of ground to be covered and a lot of mistrust to be overcome. Keadilan and PAS still face a big task in loosening PBB's grip on the Malay and Melanau communities.

Many will be wary of putting at risk the economic gains made over the past years. It could be a long process, with many ups and downs.

Clearly, the PBB leadership is feeling the pressure to shape up with the notable opposition presence. Interestingly, PBB's senior leaders have already alluded to people who were 'stirring up trouble' between Malays and Melanaus in the party.

Obviously these 'stirrers' must have had some success to force Taib to move from his current Malay majority constituency seat - Asajaya - to Balingian, a Melanau stronghold.

While Taib has emphasised that he did not bend his principles when he changed constituencies, it is a known fact that he and the former PBB deputy president, Abang Abu Bakar, who is a Malay, have had differences, including on issues relating to Taib's succession.

Although Taib diplomatically sidesteps pertinent questions, PBB's move to move Taib to Balingian is definitely a wise decision. And with Umno denying its association with Abang Abu Bakar's group of independents, Taib is no doubt relieved.

Umno is clearly trying not to let the Abang Abu Bakar factor affect the Kuching-Kuala Lumpur relationship.

However, many believe that Taib may feel more pressure from the Malay and Melanau friction within PBB than from the increased number of opposition parties contesting the elections.

Analysts also see divisions within the Abang Abu Bakar's team over how far and fast they should go in the elections. Observers say much of Abang Abu Bakar's political spadework was done long before the state assembly was dissolved early this month.

But there's uncertainty over what has been achieved politically by his group. And trouble could well erupt within his team if he does not take a more realistic approach in executing his strategy.

According to an analyst familiar with the local politics, this may probably give Taib breathing space and the political means to manoeuver the state BN to another victory. But PBB first needs to come up with a solution to its internal problems and not let petty political rivalries get in the way.

NASH RAHMAN is former chief news editor of Berita Harian , former editor of the now defunct daily Watan and former associate editor of The Sun .