analysis

Troubled Sarawak caretaker Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud must now be wishing that he should have disposed of the Abang Abu Bakar Mustapha problem much better. Abang Abu Bakar, Taib's former deputy, has been gathering support to campaign against Taib ever since he was dropped from the 1999 parliamentary election.

Abang Abu Bakar was a vice-president of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the state ruling party headed by Taib, and was a federal minister for many years, holding the post of defence minister before he was sacked from PBB.

He has gone on record as saying his group of 'independents' will contest 45 seats in the Sept 27 Sarawak state election. If they win enough seats, they would convey the 'victory' to Umno as signalling that Sarawakians want the embattled Semenanjung-based party to enter Sarawak - the only state in which Umno does not have a foothold.

Abang Abu Bakar's independents said they were only anti-Barisan Nasional at the state level, but pledge their support for the federal coalition. This means that Abang Abu Bakar is seeking to portray his personal vendetta against Taib as a battle over certain fundamental differences in policies and/or priorities.

Meanwhile, the response from Taib to this anti-state BN rhetoric was that both the state and federal BN work as one, and thus there is no truth in Abang Abu Bakar's claim.

"We carry out our struggle and policies on the same platform and with common objectives. Let's find out after the election," local daily Sarawak Tribune quoted Taib.

One front, two systems

However, Taib should not ignore the fact that one of his coalition partners, Party Bansa Dayak Sarawak or PBDS, was once a state opposition party and yet a member of BN at the federal front.

Apparently, BN chief Dr Mahathir Mohamad, sensing the danger of Taib isolating the conservative Dayaks, decided to co-opt PBDS into the federal level by appointing party president Leo Moggie as a federal minister. PBDS only rejoined the BN 'state' family in 1994, but not before discarding completely its previous policies, particularly on native rights over state land and resources.

Perhaps another unsaid reason for such 'one front, two systems' arrangement was Mahathir's silent message to Taib that Kuala Lumpur was watching Kuching closely.

Could there be another unwritten message by Mahathir to Taib that his time is almost up, if not already?

Several top Umno leaders, including Mahathir himself, have distanced Umno from Abang Abu Bakar's group on many occasions. Thus far, only Keadilan has accused Umno of backing Abang Abu Bakar's group secretly, but without giving any details.

However, for Kuching residents, it is not difficult to be suspicious of top Umno leaders' rhetoric, when Umno flags are visible everywhere.

With the power that Umno holds, it is unthinkable that no action is taken against those who openly raise Umno flags, especially after Mahathir had already spoken on the issue. Malaysians know that when the prime minister speaks, things get done.

Mahathir's silent message

So what is Mahathir silently telling Taib?

Mahathir, most certainly, has been briefed by his own people in Sarawak that Taib has increasingly been isolating many people in the state, especially the urban Malays. Ironically, the complaints on Malays being marginalised politically and economically arose as Taib enriched himself, his families and his cronies.

It is no secret that government projects continue to be awarded to companies owned by Taib's immediate and extended families. In addition, selected state-owned companies under the State Economic Development Corporation had been privatised to Taib's families.

Sarawakians have known for a considerable time, even before the 1999 parliamentary election, that Taib had also wanted to get rid of his deputy in PBB, Abang Johari Abang Openg, another prominent Malay from Kuching.

Abang Johari had stood for the PBB deputy post against Taib's preferred choice, Taib's former brother-in-law and the state's Agriculture and Food Industries Minister Adenan Satem. Abang Johari won easily, signalling party members to rebel against Taib.

Taib, in seeking to punish and purge party 'rebels', singled out Abang Johari and a few Dayak leaders within PBB. This further deepened the anger within PBB towards Taib and, combined with other accumulative unhappiness, it eventually boiled into the surface.

There were indications that Mahathir had to step in just before the 1999 parliamentary elections to nudge Taib into postponing his vendetta against Abang Johari in order to concentrate on delivering the much-needed 28 parliamentary seats from Sarawak for Mahathir to survive.

The only hint of the eventual purge was Abang Johari's change of ministerial portfolio - from industrial development minister to tourism minister. True, Abang Johari had recently said that the tourism ministry was an important sector and his ministerial change in no way signified a demotion. But this public show of unmitigated support for his political chief has rattled Abang Johari's own support base.

Malay seats at stake

A lot is at stake for Taib as the state election approaches. After the last parliamentary election, at least two Malay-majority seats within Kuching saw a huge swing towards Keadilan, severely slashing the BN's majorities. Taib, like Mahathir in the peninsula, refused to read the swing towards the opposition as voters' anger at the leadership and instead blamed others for "splitting the Malays".

If the opposition in the state can act together against the BN and not contest against one another in splitting the votes, the resulting unseating of Malay-majority seats from the BN will signal a strong message not only to Taib, but also to Mahathir.

As Taib puts it, any rejection of BN at the state would then be taken as the rejection of BN at the federal level for they are all in one big family, and those heads of the families - both small and big - will be answerable to the defeat.

Understandably, this is perhaps why Mahathir is silent on Abang Abu Bakar's continuing assertion of Umno links as his group of 'independents' will contest and thus split the opposition votes in the Malay seats and ensure BN's victory.

Mahathir would then have intervened in the Sarawak state election without openly rebuking Taib for causing defeat in Malay seats. In effect, Mahathir would be killing two birds with one stone - ensuring BN's win while not wanting to jeopardise his close relationship with Taib personally.

Any defeat in the Malay-majority seats will also allow Mahathir one more reason to tell Taib that he (Mahathir) needs to act for "the unity of Malays". Even if BN retains those seats, should the results show the continuing trend of opposition support, it will still justify Mahathir's 'concern' in the split among the Malays in Sarawak.

Morale booster

Unlike in the peninsula, there is less likelihood of people accepting that PAS is to blame for splitting the Malays in Sarawak and fingers can only be pointed at Taib's leadership.

If Abang Abu Bakar's group wins even a single seat, it can still be politicised to portray as if Sarawakians want Umno in Sarawak and this would be greatly morale boosting to Mahathir who can then say at last, that 'Sarawakians' want him.

For an embattled prime minister, this would surely go down well on his record as being able to 'unite' Malays under Umno during his term as premier. After all, it was Umno under Mahathir that saw its expansion into Sabah a few years ago.

On a lighter note, perhaps Taib can find consolation in not being the only leader who encountered problems with removing one of his right-hand personnel. While former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim continues to haunt Mahathir after being expelled three years ago, Taib may not have the luxury of another three years to patch up the damage.

Whatever the outcome of this election though, Mahathir would signal to not only Taib, but also Sarawakians, that Umno will move one step closer to entering Sarawak. For the implications of such a move, Sarawakians can look to neighbouring Sabah. But one thing is sure: Sarawak's politics will never be the same again.

Chendang Hollis is a freelance writer based in Kuching.