analysis

As political parties and candidates wind up their campaign today, there is little doubt that the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition will return to power.

The big question, however, is to what extent will the combined opposition, as well as some powerful Independents, be able to create a dent on BN's shield.

Of the utmost concern to BN, both at the state and federal levels, is whether they are able to stop the two Malay-based opposition parties - Keadilan and PAS - from breaking into BN's Malay strongholds.

Given that so much is at stake, both BN and the opposition spared nothing to try and stop each other in the past 10 days of campaigning.

The Keadilan campaign is led by its national president, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, followed by a large number of the party's top leaders - including their finest orators - and hundreds of campaigners from Peninsular Malaysia.

Not to be outdone, BN, especially Umno, has done the same, with many federal ministers helping out in ceramah (political gatherings), especially in Malay-Melanau and Chinese areas which are considered as black or in danger.

The sight of Perlis Menteri Besar Shahidah Kassim, a self-made multi-millionaire, followed by a retinue of party leaders and hundreds of Umno campaign workers with "goodies" to hand out, were gleefully greeted by their local counterparts.

Malay belt

While united in their battle against their common foe, both Keadilan and PAS have not been able to avoid a clash completely. The two opposition parties are fighting the BN, and each other, in one of the most important Malay seats in Kuching, Semariang - located on the other side of Sarawak River, opposite Kuching City Centre.

Otherwise, Keadilan has BN, or more specifically caretaker chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB), to itself in the other Malay constituencies of Satok, Demak Laut, Tupong and Pantai Damai - all in and around Kuching.

Clearly, these are areas that Keadilan feel they have the best chance of winning. Considered the most likely to fall, if any at all, is Pantai Damai with Semariang being the next most vulnerable target.

PAS is considered as having a more than even chance of winning in Sadong Jaya.

A former PBB deputy president and a former defence minister Abang Abu Bakar Mustapha, who is heading a pack of 42 Independents, is considered as the group's only best chance of winning. He is standing in Asajaya, once Taib's constituency. In caretaker chief minister's place is Abdul Karim Abdul Rahman Hamzah, son of a Taib's ex-political aide in the 1970s.

But Abang Abu's low-profile style of campaigning has made many people wonder whether he is serious at all about contesting, or whether the number he has put forward is a scarecrow tactic lest people should write him off from Day One. The identities of most of his candidates are not publicly known.

Chinese seats

As far as the Chinese areas are concerned, the battle is between the Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) - the Chinese-based component of the BN - and DAP.

DAP's campaign is clearly based on issues and strategies, which seem to be marketable in many areas, putting SUPP on a defensive. Areas being targeted are Padungan, Batu Lintang, Bukit Assek, Pelawan, Kidurong and Meradong.

SUPP is going all out not only to retain the 14 seats it won, but also to recapture the remaining three seats it lost in the 1996 state elections. Meanwhile, DAP wants to retain the three seats it won in the last elections (Bukit Assek, Pelawan and Kidurong) and to capture one or two more, such as Bawang Assam and even Meradong.

But some of BN's own problems are their own creation - like members who disagreed with their parties' official choices and now standing on Independent tickets in several rural constituencies, which could create some surprises. One is Meluan, another is Telang Usan in Baram. Limbang in northern Sarawak near the border with Brunei is yet another.

Generally, the weakest link in the BN chain is Sarawak National Party (Snap), another component member of the BN. Apart from Meluan and Limbang, another of its remaining six seats that is considered unsafe is Krian, where some Independents are contesting. These candidates are backed by certain influential political personalities with traditionally close grassroots contacts.

According to latest assessments, 12 BN seats are considered vulnerable, giving the combined opposition and Independents their best hopes of winning.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini correspondent in Sarawak.