analysis

Ask any Barisan Nasional minister, he or she will tell you that the opposition had failed miserably in Sarawak because the people do not want "dirty and violent" peninsula-based parties creeping into their politics - which has been "gentle and polite" since time immemorial.

Ask any opposition candidate the same, he or she will tell you age-old stories about money politics and how their electoral debacles had been largely contributed by their opponents' fear tactics - perceived or real.

"Heroes never win because the eyes of the rakyat (people) have been blurred by money," said a Sarawakian in the wake of BN's resounding victory in the state's eighth election last Thursday.

"Money here doesn't only mean cash but physical and material wealth such as big buildings, expensive projects like the Bakun Dam and illusions of a better life (which the government says it will continue to provide)."

A senior journalist remarked somewhat cynically that "what the opposition needs is money. With money, you can win any election".

Perceived inroads

BN's landslide victory shocked and disappointed many quarters who believed the opposition could wrest between nine and 12 'vulnerable' seats.

Such analyses were derived from the opposition's perceived inroads into the state's local political arena since the last general elections in 1999 when parties such as Keadilan, DAP and even PRM had obtained higher votes.

Analysts claimed that various issues such as the Malay-Melanau divide, the community's dissatisfaction with the government over land rights and the ouster of two federal ministers - Abang Abu Bakar Abang Mustapha and Sulaiman Daud - who were defence minister and agriculture minister respectively - from the cabinet after 1999, could alter the face of Sarawak's politics this time around.

DAP's shocking pullout from the opposition Barisan Alternatif coalition over the Islamic state controversy was thought to be a strategic move. The Chinese-based party had envisaged that it could lure Chinese voters - particularly those who opposed the setting up of an Islamic state and were unhappy with the party's alliance with PAS - back into the opposition's fold.

Many, however, failed to take into account Sarawak BN's efforts in keeping the people happy with promises of more development and guaranteed religious freedom. When almost 50 percent of the state's population live in underdeveloped areas, the word "development" acquires a greatly appealing quality.

Clean sweep

There is no denying that the ruling coalition had all the right ingredients, machinery and strategies to ensure its victory. How a DAP candidate and an independent could capture two seats still baffles some cynics, who thought the BN would make a clean sweep of all 62 seats and monopolise the state assembly.

For a start, almost all local media organisations - from newspapers to TV and radio - are completely under the thumb of the state government with the exception of one alternative newspaper called Malaysia Today .

It is no secret that for the past months the media had been singing praises of the 'glowing' achievements and generosity of the local government. Countless projects - from building of schools, surau , hospitals, roads, housing, to handing out donations, land compensation and grants to the needy - have been reported to be initiated by several BN ministers or candidates.

"With this, people simply have no excuse to say 'no' to the ruling party," said a local journalist who felt oppressed by the government's total control of the media but felt compelled to toe the line.

"This is my home, where can I go to? You people in the peninsula can run to Thailand if something goes wrong. Sarawak is in an island, there is nowhere to run to."

No matter how simplistic or complicated the arguments for or against one's political allegiance, everywhere one went, from kampung to cities, one would still hear the chorus: "We will vote for the BN because there is proof of development."

"Of course, the politically subdued will never ask - 'development for whom?'" the journalist lamented.

"Even those who claim their lands have been 'stolen' or complain incessantly that they have not been paid adequate compensations will tell you without hesitation that they will vote for BN as 'they are the only government we know'," he said.

"Some even venture further to add that the government was fair and that it had only been slandered - all this while lamenting they have several mouths to feed, bodies to cloth and brains to educate," he added.

'What is RM5?'

Adding to such 'political oppression' and 'naivety' is a directive from the Election Commission to confine ceramah and political campaigns behind doors. This, the opposition claimed, has hindered the already daunting task of disseminating information to the public.

"We have limited resources, we hardly have time to explain our policies to the people. When we go house to house, all we can do is introduce ourselves to the voters," lamented a candidate.

"We thought this was effective but how many doors can you knock in a span of nine days?" asked one opposition supporter. That was the length of time allocated by the EC for the Sarawak state election campaign.

A more serious reason for the opposition's massive losses this time were allegations of money politics. Cash was said to have been distributed in envelopes at polling stations and there were reports that illegal betting on candidates have taken place especially in Chinese-predominant constituencies. The 'prize', they say, can range from a mere RM5 to RM1,000.

A random research done by malaysiakini found that there were indeed kampung folks who admitted to have taken such money.

After taking the money, the people feel guilty and will vote for the BN, they said.

A fisherman who had received such 'incentives' at the last general elections had this to say: "What is RM5, you will ask. For simple folks like us, RM5 can buy us cigarettes or food for two days."

Terror campaign

Another reason offered by the opposition to explain their inability to change Sarawak's political landscape was the "terror campaign used by BN to exploit the irrational fear of the people".

"Do not underestimate the power of fear tactics employed by the government," said an opposition supporter, justifying the DAP's poor performance even in hopeful constituencies such as Padungan and Bukit Assek. The DAP only managed to secure a seat in Kiduroung.

"In the past, BN can go on and on about May 13. Now they have the terrorist attacks in the US and Islamic militancy issue to babble about," he added.

The BN has been said to have also conveniently exploited the opposition alliance fall-out following DAP's withdrawal from the BA.

The DAP had taken a calculated risk and had thought this strategy would convince voters that the party was serious about its principles of social democracy and its 'Malaysian Malaysia' concept.

"However, we failed to convince voters that a vote for DAP was 'not a vote for terror, instability and Islamic extremism' especially when BN candidates kept reminding voters of the possibility of this happening after terrorists brought down New York's World Trade Center and Washington's Pentagon on that fateful Sept 11," said a DAP leader.

Opposition to blame

Despite all these alleged underhanded manoeuvrings by the BN to secure votes, a local political observer said that the opposition was partly responsible for its 'disaster' due to lack of imagination, stratagems and cooperation.

"This time they really asked for it," said a member of a local non-government organisation.

"They know there will never be a level playing field - the BN will exhaust all ways and means to eclipse the opposition's influence - so they must be prepared to counter the BN's tactics by now.

"The opposition has already had several experiences - from the 1999 general elections to several by-elections such as Sanggang (Pahang), Lunas (Kedah), Likas (Sabah) and now Sarawak. How many times do they want to cry foul without doing anything to improve their strategy?" she asked.

This woman, who is a keen political observer, said that the opposition, especially Keadilan, was "stubborn".

"They do not listen to advice. During ceramah , they talk about the Internal Security Act or the Anwar Ibrahim issue, meaning they talk about abstractions, which local folks cannot relate to. They raise issues which have no relevance to the people of this land," she added.

According to this woman who volunteered with the Sarawak Election Watch, an independent NGO, Keadilan kept singing the same tune wherever it went.

"Despite being advised, despite being told exactly what issues to raise in a certain constituency - different constituencies have different problems - the opposition kept harping on the same issues they raise in the peninsula," she said.

"There was no assurance of what they can do for the local people, how they can improve people's lot in life. Even if there were assurances, they were not very convincing," she added.

She said that although Keadilan had made an interesting revelation - that the then caretaker chief minister Abdul Taib Mahmud had 'squandered' three million hectares of Native Customary and Malay Reserve land and given it to 121 'crony' companies, the party failed to show evidence of how many people had been victimised, and how much money or compensation the government was still owing the people.

"This meant Keadilan failed to follow up on the issue. They failed to do their homework," she said.

Greed for power

Keadilan's campaign strategies, she argued, were so unlike those of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad who knew what to say to different groups of people or communities.

When he visited a Chinese school, she said, Mahathir promised not to hinder the development of mother-tongue languages or the building of more Chinese and Tamil schools as requested by the community.

"Likewise, when he met the Malay community in Petra Jaya during a meet-the-people's session, he spoke of nothing but development, peace, stability and the aggressiveness of opposition politics."

All this adds to the complaint that the opposition was in total chaos and not able to arrive at a compromise regarding fielding candidates in seats considered 'hot' - where there were good chances of victory, said some local people.

"Any chances of winning will be dashed by the opposition's lack of co-operation. Time and time again they willingly gave bullets to the BN to shoot them down," said an opposition supporter in Samariang where PAS and Keadilan had insisted on contesting against each other.

"Keadilan had a good chance of winning here. Why must PAS spoil it?" he queried.

"After so many elections, why can't the opposition put aside their differences or their greed for power and draw up a clever plan to solve the problem of overlapping interests?" he added.

No think-tank power

According to this civil servant, Keadilan leaders say that their failure to avoid such problems were due to several of their 'think-tanks' being held under the controversial Internal Security Act for a period of two years at the Kamunting detention camp in Perak.

"This is ridiculous as I am sure there are many others who can 'think' as well," he said.

Lastly, there is the never-ending question of financial and human resources to conduct campaigns on a large scale, with the ability to reach out into the interiors and convince people they must vote for the opposition.

Indeed, if the opposition does not take stock of its weaknesses, it may very well 'close shop' or face more rejection as time goes by.

"If this trend continues, the opposition will be wiped out in 2004," said a triumphant Chief Minister Taib at last Thurday's press conference in his spacious and brightly-lit palatial office in Petra Jaya.

That may well be true.

SUSAN LOONE is a member of the malaysiakini team.