analysis

The dismissal of MCA vice-president Chua Jui Meng from the post of MCA Kedah liasion chief certainly has nothing to do with the terrorist attack in Washington DC and New York City or the 'imminence' of a 'Taliban revolution' in Malaysia.

It has much to do with the internal politicking of the MCA, the second largest component party of the Umno-dominated Barisan Nasional coalition, as the factional campaigns for party elections heat up toward 2002.

Although no reason has been given by MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik yet on the grounds of the dismissal, it would probably not be a surprise if, after some pressure is applied publicly by the Chinese community or privately by Umno's top leadership, Chua were to be accused of being "incompetent" or "unpopular" as the Kedah chief.

This 'reason' or argument is usually functional enough for the malleable and less sophisticated to buy. After all, Ling and his faction could easily brush aside any misgivings about Chua being sidelined by pointing out that he is still the health minister, vice-president of the party as well as one of the trustees of the MCA-controlled investment arm, Huaren Holdings, which now owns English daily The Star and the Chinese Nanyang Siang Pau and China Press .

However, for Chua and his faction, as well as the more sophisticated and insightful political observers, removing him from the post of state chief is only the prelude of a more intense and extensive purge to come, for Chua himself and his faction.

Without the prestige and resources of being a state chief, the Johor-based lawyer and health minister would lose grassroots contact and support gradually, and would, if Ling's calculation is correct, be voted out from the top leadership next year. The 'domino' effect would see Chua being stripped off his posts as the health minister and trustee of Huaren.

Fighting back

Can Chua fight back? Certainly, but not at the state level. He can, if he wishes, fight one level higher by contesting against Ling for the MCA presidency. Only by taking a pro-active initiative and creating such a sensational battle royale could Chua hope to attract public and national attention from now on to the party elections next year.

Otherwise, he would 'die' politically, without honour. In the realist politics of MCA, no one respects or supports anyone who does not have positions and the power of patronage.

But why pick on Chua, and not deputy president Lim Ah Lek or youth chief Ong Tee Keat?

This is not difficult to understand: Chua has all the ingredients or qualifications necessary for the making of another MCA president - English-educated, professional or technocratic, relatively young, long enough in the party, ambitious, not too bad looking and, above all, has a good relationship with Umno, which might be scouting around for a replacement of Ling for a more co-operative and less 'threatening' MCA president in the post-Mahathir era.

Moreover, the grassroots support for Lim Ah Lek in Pahang is strong and solid, as evidenced by the success of the state delegates in passing almost unanimously a resolution calling for constitutional amendments to limit the tenure of the president or other top posts to only three terms or nine years. Resolutions of similar messages or content, although tabled in other states, have not been passed.

As for Ong Tee Keat, he still commands the majority in the youth wing, and his strength is clearly reflected in the sacking of the two Ling loyalists, namely secretary-general Yew Teong Look and deputy chairperson Loh Seng Kok, who is also a political secretary to the president-cum-transport minister.

The powerful trio

The rest of the less powerful dissidents could be co-opted back into the mainstream "in the largest interest of the party, the Chinese and non-Muslim community", after Ling defeats the powerful trio.

Where the powerful trio and their nationwide supporters go politically if they are defeated in the coming party elections, is certainly a development to be watched carefully.

Thus, the MCA internal and factional struggle this round is not only watched closely by MCA delegates, members and their friendly journalists in the press rooms, it is also nervously but silently observed by Umno and the opposition, especially DAP and Keadilan/PRM. Indeed, MCA's power struggle has spillover effects on Umno and the opposition.

It is not difficult to understand that the some strategists in the opposition secretly hope Ling would win, while their counterparts in the non-Mahathir factions of Umno would secretly pray for the dissidents.

While the opposition needs Ling and his faction to continue to provide them with Chinese issues, non-Mahathir factions of Umno hope the cleaner and more upright image of the MCA dissidents would help to attract more Chinese votes in the coming general elections.

For example, Pekan, the parliamentary constituency of Umno vice-president and Defence Minister Najib Abdul Razak is situated within the sphere of influence of Lim Ah Lek, not Ling Liong Sik. Najib won only with a razor-thin majority of 241 votes against a relatively little known PAS candidate. He will need all the Chinese votes he can get in the next election to stay alive.

Gerakan, another predominantly-Chinese multi-ethnic party of Barisan Nasional, is still too tiny to serve the grand purpose of saving Umno in the coming general elections.

Trouble for Mahathir in Kedah

Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad naturally hopes for stability, harmony and continuity in MCA with everyone working together happily as brothers and sisters, under his old friend Ling "for the interests of the BN, the country and the people".

But that is only for the consumption of the more impressionable readers of the mainstream papers.

With the removal of Chua as the Kedah state chief, a Hobbesian nightmare has probably descended upon the home turf of Mahathir. In the last general elections, PAS won eight of the 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah, Umno only five and MCA two. Personally, Mahathir's majority was slashed by 7,088 votes as compared with the results from the 1995 general elections.

At the state level, out of the total 36 seats, the BN won 24 and Barisan Alternatif 12. But in the Lunas by-election last year, Keadilan beat BN's MIC, thus breaking the ruling coalition's two-third majority in the state assembly.

Malay-Muslim political sentiment and opinions on the ground in Kedah are still divided three years after the removal of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrrahim.

The removal of the high-profiled Chua by Ling's faction of MCA, with a relatively unknown Beh Heng Seong as replacement, will probably disrupt the political equilibrium in Mahathir's home turf further as Kedah is certainly set to be a major theatre of 'war' between the ruling and opposition parties, with Chinese voters playing the role Great Britain assumed in the classical balance of power in Europe.

JAMES WONG is chief analysis of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based [#1] Analysis Malaysia [/#]. More information, facts, figures and analyses on MCA, its major personalities, factional antagonists and faultlines can be obtained from the website. SAM is currently working on a special issue on politics in the Malay-Muslim heartland which includes Kedah.