With the Barisan Nasional almost certain to return to power with a huge majority, the question is how many seats will fall to the opposition when Sarawakians go the polls tomorrow.

Will the BN make a clean sweep of the remaining 69 state seats after winning two uncontested on nomination day, May 9?

Political analysts agreed that based on what they see as indicative factors, there is generally a groundswell support for the opposition, particularly in Chinese-majority areas in Kuching, Sibu, Bintangor, Bintulu and even Miri.

In areas like Padungan, Kota Sentosa and Pending in Kuching, Bukit Assek and Pelawan in Sibu, Meradong in Bintangor, Kidurong in Bintulu and Pujut in Miri, the issues are both domestic and external.

But central to all the issues, as far as the opposition are concerned, is Abdul Taib Mahmud. Many people are saying the chief minister has overstayed after more than 25 years at the helm and who has been openly been accused of festering his own nest like promoting family business interests and helping only his cronies in business.

Business monopoly and contracts enjoyed by Taib's family members and friends are the normal grouses being heard. Then there is also the complaint over the increasing cost of houses because cement, among other things, is manufactured by a Taib family-controlled company.

Anti-government sentiments

The large turn-out at many of the opposition ceramah, the enthusiastic response from the people and the spirit of volunteerism have been a cause of concern to the BN.

"Ostensibly, there is a groundswell support for the opposition," a Kuching businessman commented. "There is a lot of anti-government sentiments."

According to him, these sentiments are largely directed at the top BN leadership and some of their policies, especially on business and land matters.

State DAP secretary Chong Chieng Jen, who is the party's candidate in Kota Sentosa, and his party colleagues Violet Yong Wui Wui (Pending) and Voon Lee Shan (Batu Lintang), appear to have convinced many voters that Supp has no say in the government despite the power-sharing concept of the BN.

They chastised Supp's failure in handling the land-lease renewal issue, saying it has no power inspite of the so-called BN's power--sharing formula.

"In reality, decisions are made only by one man," they said.

If the opposition has raised enough doubts in the minds of many urban electors about the effectiveness of Supp in the government to voice public grievances and complaints, the electorate can be expected to vote for change.

Supp leaders are often in a dilemma because as part of the BN they usually do not speak out against official policies, and often have to suffer the ignomity of being criticised as 'Yes men' in the state legislative assembly.

These are among the issues which have been given a lot of play, and to good effect, by the opposition not only in Padungan (where PKR's Dominique Ng is taking on BN-Supp incumbent Lily Yong) but also in Pending, Kota Sentosa and Batu Lintang.

The result is Supp leaders have little answers for them and are usually put on the defensive, offering the only possible argument that being in government is certainly better than being outside it because there is no way the opposition can deliver development projects.

The opposition's reply to this is they are needed to provide the check-and-balance and to prevent or reduce abuses of power and flagrant corruption and nepotism.

Seats too close to call

Most political observers have noted the growing anti-government sentiments but whether this will translate into votes for the opposition remain to be seen.

For the moment, several urban seats are too close to call - Padungan, Kota Sentosa, Bukit Assek, Meradong and Kidurong, the only seat won by the DAP in 2001.

Supp secretary-general Sim Kheng Hui, who is defending his Pending seat in a straight fight with 29-year-old lawyer Violent Yong, was usually full of confidence. This time, he is more cautious, saying he expects a tough fight.

The bets are close for Padungan and Kota Sentosa where Supp information chief and assistant minister Alfred Yap is involved in a straight fight with DAP's Chong Chieng Jen.

Chong has made a great impression, especially among young voters, in his nightly ceramah with his like-able face and amiable character.

The spotlight in Sibu is on Bukit Assek where state DAP leader Wong Ho Leng is trying to make a comeback to the state assembly. Supp incumbent Daniel Ngieng who is also Sibu Municipal Council deputy chairperson has admitted he is fighting the biggest battle of his life in defending the seat.

If there is any seat that is likely to go, it is Bukit Assek where Wong lost less than 1000 votes in the 2001 state election to Ngieng. This time, the same number of voters has been shifted to another constituency, which could prove to be advantageous to Wong.

In Meradong and Kidurong, one political analyst said it is also too close to call. The BN appears to have an edge in Meradong but in Kidurong, it is 50:50.'

Among the 29 Dayak seats, only a few are seen to be in danger for BN. These are Batang Ai, Engkilili, Ngemah, Belaga and Ba'kelalan.

Opposition supporters told malaysiakini that the force of money politics is still very strong in Iban areas as "the community have not changed very much."

Tough in Malay areas

Although some of its ceremah in many areas in and around Kuching have been well-attended, PKR is generally seen to be facing an uphill battle in Malay/Melanau seats, despite the presence of PKR adviser and former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim and party president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

However, there is expected to be some fight in Semariang, where state PKR chief Wan Zainal Wan Sanusi is involved in a straight duel with BN-PBB's Sharifah Hasidah and in Pantai Damai where the BN-PBB incumbent Dr Abdul Rahman Junaidi is being challenged by state PKR information chief Idris Bohari.

"There is also a lot of unhappiness among the Malays with Taib's leadership whom they see as favouring the Melanaus more," a Malay political analyst said.

"The Malay community may not be quite ready to abandon PBB yet despite all that as shown in the 2004 parliamentary elections. The anti-government or anti-Taib sentiments may instead be reflected by a higher percentage of voters who will not go out to cast their votes," he added.

A conservative reading of poll chances to-date is that the combined opposition could pick up at the very most five to six seats and at the very least one to two seats in Sarawak's ninth state election tomorrow.