(IPS) analysis

The military government in Pakistan just has too much on its plate. On the domestic front, it has to deal with the increasingly violent anti-US protests, and on the diplomatic level, it is working overtime to ensure that the post-attack political setup in Afghanistan is friendly to Islamabad.

First signs of distress appeared as the country plunged into protests after the air attacks by the United States and its allied forces against Afghanistan that began two weeks ago.

Since the government was shrugging off the opponents of its support of the United States as minority, it was not prepared to respond to the powerful pro-Taliban and anti-America protests throughout the country called by the right-wing religious parties.

"It was not an unexpected reaction. The authorities should have been prepared for the trouble, specially at a political level to cushion the impact of the anger over the strikes. But with politics in abeyance and the regime bereft of support even from politicians who might agree on their policy on Afghanistan, it had to contain a situation that was much beyond its professional expertise," read a hard-hitting editorial by the English-language daily The News ', lambasting the government handling of the protests.

The end result was five people dead and scores injured, some United Nations offices burnt, public property damaged in various cities and public anger further intensified since the US air strikes against the Taliban began. Several right-wing leaders and workers were arrested and others put under house arrest.

'Firmly and swiftly'

The government, meanwhile, seemed to have miscalculated its reaction. Rather than engaging opponents in constructive talks to calm their sentiments, the government issued a stern warning to protestors that they will be dealt with 'firmly and swiftly'.

''There is no problem at hand, though some people are spreading disinformation, rumours and exaggerated views. Only Afghan refugees, along with a limited number of extremists, are taking part in protests and there is no public reaction at all," said Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf at a cabinet meeting on Oct 10.

But the increased deployment of troops, patrolling on machine gun-mounted vehicles and increased number of police check-posts are only denying Musharraf's claims that the opponents are in minority.

"The threats from the extremists groups should not be ruled out. Their anger is deep-rooted, more political then religious and it should be tackled through politics and not force," commented one official of the interior ministry, requesting not to be named.

Some press reports suggested that the arrested protesters would be tried under the country's anti-terrorism laws, which carry a punishment of one to 14 years in jail. Even politicians once regarded as pro-Musharraf, are alienating themselves from the government's policy supporting attacks against the Taliban.

"The attacks would further devastate Afghanistan. A solution must be found according to the traditions and values of the Afghan people," said Ajmal Khattak, who now heads his own party in the predominantly Pashtun North West Frontier Province after his nationalist Awami National Party threw him out for his overtures with the military government soon after the 1999 coup.

Press reports have suggested that the reshuffle in army ranks had a lot to do with in-house disagreements over Musharraf's Afghan policy.

"General Musharraf has changed the image of the Pakistan Army from one which scared the West as fundamentalists to an outfit with a liberal and moderate face," commented Kamran Khan in his column in an English-language daily, indicating that generals harbouring Islamist views were sidelined.

Daunting challenge

While the military government struggles to establish its writ over protestors, the challenge on the diplomatic front is more daunting. The biggest task for the government is to ensure that the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance is not able to take advantage of the pounding of the militia and take a major political role in the future Afghan government.

The alliance is opposed to Pakistan and blames Islamabad for propping up and supporting Taliban. On the other hand, Islamabad views the alliance's close links to New Delhi with suspicion and regards it as detrimental to Pakistan's interests.

"We will not accept Northern Alliance and I have told everybody that even its forces should not be allowed to enter Kabul," Musharraf said at the cabinet meeting.

Pakistan wants a broad-based, multi-ethnic and representative government in its frontier borders. This kind of political dispensation would ensure that the Pahstuns are represented, who are traditionally known for their close ties with Pakistan.

While Musharraf has time and again talked of assurances from the United States and its allied forces that the future political setup in Afghanistan will be friendly to Pakistan, the situation on the ground is different. Pentagon officials have hinted that the Northern Alliance would form a major factor in their ground attacks against the Taliban positions.

President George Bush has already said that action in Afghanistan will not be short and swift, contradicting Musharraf's claim that the action will be "short, targeted and swift".

Unstable border

Dr Shireen Mazari, who heads Pakistan's Institute of Strategic Studies, cites the Northern Alliance and former Afghan King Zahir Shah as having close ties with India. "If these groups come to power with no other group being co-opted, Pakistan can expect an unstable Western border as well as Indian presence in Afghanistan," she commented.

"Pakistan needs to evolve its own alternatives for the future political framework in Afghanistan," she suggests, a clear hint that the government should not rely on Western assurances.

The government's worries do not end here. The landing of American fighter planes in Pakistani air-bases so early in the campaign against Afghanistan has also compounded its troubles. It has so far been maintaining that the use of Pakistani bases will be allowed only as a last resort and that they will not be used to attack Afghanistan.

Although official circles are tight-lipped about this development, the daily Dawn newspaper reported on Thursday that American military aircraft and helicopters have landed on Jaccobabad airbase in the Sindh province, while airports in four other towns have been taken over by the military to give clear flight path for the coalition aircraft for round-the-clock sorties on Afghan cities.