(IPS) feature

The mysterious death of an Irian Jaya independence leader recently has raised fears about a new rise in tensions in that troubled Indonesian province, but some experts say this scenario may not quite unfold.

In the days since the murder of Theys Hiyo Eluay, a number of politicians have likened the impact of his death to the Santa Cruz incident in East Timor in 1991, when Indonesian troops arbitrarily opened fire at young East Timorese protesting military brutality.

That became the turning point of a protracted armed struggle by independence fighters that led to a United Nations-sponsored referendum in August 1999 and separation from Indonesia.

Now, there are fears that Theys' apparent murder may spark a similar rupture in relations between Indonesia and its eastern province of Irian Jaya, which for decades has been home to a movement seeking independence from Jakarta.

But a native Irian Jaya legislator, Lukas Karl Degey, said while Theys' tragic death would certainly boost the morale and enthusiasm of Papuans to fight for independence, ''they would pursue their cause through peaceful means''.

''This is evident when thousands of supporters walked a 45km parade to bring Theys' body home, waving the banned Morning Star (pro-independence) flag and uttering pro-independence slogans,'' Degey said.

But some political figures say they do not expect his death to lead to more violence - for different reasons.

Grassroots support

''The fact that there have been no riots in the provincial capital of Jayapura and the neighbouring town of Abepura shows that Theys is not and was never recognised as a leader in those two places," Paulus Baut, a legislator representing Irian Jaya province, said, adding that Irian Jaya society is not homogenous.

''Theys enjoyed little support from grassroots people in the province since he has always been considered as the chief of Sentani tribe whose authority is limited to his folks only,'' Baut continued.

Theys, a 64-year-old tribal elder and respected local politician, was found dead in his car recently after reportedly being kidnapped shortly after a function at the Army Special Force headquarters in Irian Jaya to mark National Heroes Day.

Doctors who performed an autopsy on his body said Theys had been choked to death. Police authorities are now investigating the cause of his death.

Political analyst Hermawan Sulistyo of the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) agrees that Theys' death would not necessarily heighten the secessionist movement in Irian Jaya.

''The suggestion that Theys' death would trigger Papuans to revolt and secede from Indonesia is groundless because he is not widely supported by the people at the grassroots level,'' said Sulistyo.

A prophet

But Irian Jaya legislator Degey disagrees, saying Theys was respected by both indigenous Irianese and migrants. ''For the people at the grassroots level, Theys is a piece of hope, a prophet who can bring them out of their suffering, especially pressures from the central government and heavy presence of military personnel in the province,'' Degey said.

But according to Baut, who worked as a human rights activist in Irian Jaya and traveled extensively in the province before he was elected to the House of Representatives in 1999, other independence activists consider Theys an opportunist who exploited their cause for personal gain.

''Theys might have been killed by independence activists who are angry with him because he exploited their cause for personal benefit,'' he said.

Theys was a member of the local legislative assembly representing the former ruling party Golkar for 15 years, but he became a pro-independence leader after he failed to be reelected to the council in 1980s.

During the Suharto regime, he was also made coordinator of tribal chiefs from around Irian Jaya province.

In 1999, Theys, together with secessionist figures such as Tom Beanal, Don A A Flassy, Al Hamid and Herman Awom, set up what is now known as the 'Presidium Dewan Papua' (PDP), or the Papuan Presidium Council, to advance their fight for an independent state. Until his death, Theys was PDP chair.

Unlike other independence figures, Theys maintained good personal relationships with local military and police officers as well as government officials.

On the night Theys was reportedly abducted, he had just been to a dinner hosted by the army's most-feared Special Force (Kopassus) in Jayapura, capital of Irian Jaya.

Watching closely

In order to prevent anger from building up after the killing, Degey urged police officers in Irian Jaya to investigate Theys' murder thoroughly and punish those responsible for his death.

''The Papuans are now watching very closely whether or not the police investigate the murder case fairly and openly,'' said Degey, adding that the Papuans might take the law into their own hands if authorities are not transparent in examining the case.

He also said the future of independence movement in Irian Jaya depends to a large extent on how PDP handles Theys' death and plans future programmes.

''The murder of Theys has strengthened and consolidated PDP as an organisation,'' he said, adding that Papuans would always avoid violence and pursue their cause through peaceful means as Theys and his friends in PDP have promoted.

Added Sulistyo: "Instead of pushing forward with the secessionist movement, the leaders in the PDP will fight for the position Theys left.''

The independence movement in Irian Jaya has its roots from the sixties, stemming from resentment against what it sees as unjust treatment by Jakarta and the exploitation by the government and big companies of its rich natural resources during the Suharto era, and rights abuses by the military as it tried to quell the rebellion.

Irian Jaya was unhappy with the fact that it kept only a bit of the revenues raised from the use of resources, especially forestry and mining. Most of it went to the central government.

To address the root causes of Irian Jaya's resentment, Degey urged President Megawati Sukarnoputri to implement as soon as possible the Special Autonomy Law for Irian Jaya province.

In October, the House of Representatives passed a law granting Irian Jaya special status, which allows the province to get 80 percent of revenues from forestry and fishery and 70 percent from oil, gas and mining.

It also allows the province to change its name from Irian Jaya to Papua, to have its own hymn and flag (but not the banned Morning Star flag) as demanded by Irian Jaya's people.

The bill, however, has not been signed into law by Megawati - and no explanation has been given for the delay.