opinion

For the admirers and supporters of MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik, one of his political virtues is that he speaks or responds to questions very economically. He does not intrude upon the people who are too busy to even think.

However, for his detractors and those who like to think and analyse politics in greater depth, his words and sentences are unproductively vague. For example, as the New Straits Times reported on Dec 10, Ling warned 'outsiders' not to 'interfere' in the 'internal problem' of the MCA Youth.

But who are these interfering outsiders? In the absence of a clearly-defined target or targets, all those who do not belong to the faction of MCA led by Ling could only speculate and guess on the basis of circumstantial evidences as the party's veterans did on the question of who started the ruckus on Aug 3 in the annual general meeting of MCA youth.

For those who read The Sun a day earlier (Dec 9), the 'outsiders' meant by Ling could be Gerakan, especially its president, Dr Lim Keng Yaik. Lim was reported that day on the front page of The Sun as openly accusing "a group of Barisan Nasional leader" of "conspiring to topple the Gerakan-led state government in Penang".

Behind the scene

Lim, who did not mention names, was nevertheless clearer. It is not possible for Gerakan leaders to 'topple the Gerakan-led state government in Penang'; and even if there is such a 'Gerakan conspiracy against the Gerakan-led government', Lim would not have exposed it in that way openly. And if the 'conspiracy' originates from Umno, Lim would have just kept quiet and sort things out behind the scene.

Thus, by a simple mental process of elimination, the 'conspiracy to topple the Gerakan-led government in Penang' must be from MCA or agents associated with the interests of MCA. Ling might be infuriated by the 'coincidence' of Lim's exposure.

The historical memory that Lim was once an expelled MCA leader, and that many other MCA top leaders who failed in their bids for leadership positions or attempts to reform the party finally crossed over to join Gerakan, further complicate the relationships between the two fellow members of the ruling Barisan Nasional.

The secret attempt by Ling's faction in MCA to take over the position of Penang's chief minister, as repeatedly alleged by Gerakan simply add an emotional factor to the strained and tense relationships. Ling might thus be taking precautionary measures against any counter-strikes mounted or to be mounted by Gerakan when the party is weakest politically.

Moderating the warring factions

However, the 'outsiders' could conceivably be Umno or some of its top leaders. It is certainly in Umno's interest to moderate or possibly stop the warring factions and sub-factions in MCA, including its youth and women's wings.

As there is no discernible sign of Umno regaining significantly the lost Malay/Muslim support in the 1999 general election, the Hobbesian nightmare of 'wars of all against all' in the second largest component party of the ruling BN coalition is simply nightmarish.

Assuming that there are now secret attempts on the part of some or all well-meaning top Umno leaders to reconcile the warring factions and to promote 'harmony', 'family spirit of give-and-take', 'mutual accommodation' and related concepts, they would certainly be frustrated for the simple reason that the split has reached a point of no return.

Could anyone, in all his or her sincerity and honesty, realistically project a scenario whereby Ling would forget and forgive all the political and personal attacks, rightly or wrongly, levelled against him by leaders and members of Team B, or that Chan Kong Choy would give up all hopes of becoming a full minister? Or that Ong Ka Ting or Dr Fong Chan Onn would voluntarily vacate their ministerial position to give it to Chan?

In this situation where emotion of self-preservation and partisan irrationality prevail, any Umno attempt, however well-meaning, to reconcile the warring factions could be construed as 'interference' by the factional warriors who have reached a psychological stage of 'do-or-die'.

Besieged president

The besieged president of MCA might also be taking precautionary measures against the possibility of Umno or some of its top leaders exploiting Team B as the 'Northern Alliance'. Strategists of Team A might have concluded from their studies of the history of Umno-MCA relations that a weak Umno cannot afford to have a strong and united MCA as an ally.

That the paramount leader of Team B, Lim Ah Lek admitted in a personal interview in the Umno-controlled New Straits Times at the height of the Nanyang takeover controversy, that he briefed the deputy prime minister and deputy president of Umno on the issue and sentiment of the 'Chinese community' seem to have infuriated president Ling who wanted the deal to be concluded with Clausewitzian 'speed and secrecy'.

What Lim Ah Lek did and admitted honestly is seen and construed by many of the president's men as 'an act of betrayal'.

For Ling and his MCA (A) faction, the most nightmarish threat to its security and stability is certainly a secret alliance of Umno, Gerakan, and MCA (B) to contain them in the name of preserving the collective interests of the Barisan Nasional.

Whether the threat is real or merely perceived, or imagined is yet to be ascertained as more events unfold in the next few months.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia. James is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew , he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.