(IPS) opinion

Seventy years ago, the Islamic visionary Dr Muhammad Iqbal wrote, ''Afghanistan is the key to Asia's stability. If there is strife in Afghanistan, there will be strife in Asia, and if there is peace in Afghanistan, Asia too will be at peace.''

The verses of Iqbal, now Pakistan's official poet who first envisioned a free state for Muslims of India in the form of Pakistan, appear to have prescience today. In the beginning of the 21st century, as the dust settles on the latest war in Afghanistan, these words could not have been more profound or more true.

- There is a certain timelessness to Afghanistan's situation or, to put it in another way, the more things change, the more they remain the same.

Take the case of the former Afghan monarch, Muhammad Zahir Shah, who has been living in exile in Rome since 1973 when he was ousted in a military coup. Zahir Shah, now 87, assumed Afghanistan's throne in 1933, the same year Franklin Roosevelt was elected president of the United States and Adolf Hitler the chancellor of Germany.

These two figures seem part of distant history, revered and reviled respectively for different reasons. But Zahir Shah remains relevant to Afghanistan's future, and he is arguably still the single most popular public figure in strife-torn, war-ravaged Afghanistan.

For instance, the Bonn agreement on a broad-based post-Taliban government includes in its text the following reference to the former king, which underlines his continued clout: ''Participants in the UN talks on Afghanistan have invited Muhammad Zahir, the former King of Afghanistan, to chair the interim administration.''

''His majesty has indicated that he would prefer that a suitable candidate acceptable to the participants be selected as the chair of the interim administration,'' the document added.

Time stops

Zahir Shah is not the only anachronism in the Afghan situation. There are other elements indicating that time, in certain aspects, just stops moving.

For instance, the latest war was fought both on horseback as well as by high-tech weaponry like the B-1 bomber, 'Daisy Cutter' and 'Bunker Buster' bombs. Likewise, there were people holed out in caves battling the world's most sophisticated and superior military machine that man can envisage.

What can be a good basis for optimism for Afghanistan's future in 2002? Three readily come to mind.

First, the chequered course of contemporary Afghan history. In the last 30 years, of which 23 were virtually at war, the Afghan nation has experienced a royalist regime followed by a republican one, a Marxist set-up followed by one that claimed to be Muslim but almost mediaeval in its outlook, then invasions and civil wars, interventions first by the Russians and now the Americans.

There are two lessons of history, one general and another specific to Afghanistan.

Nations destroyed by war often develop a resilience to rise phoenix-like, and become both prosperous and stable. Recent examples include Germany, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and even China and Malaysia, which witnessed revival after a revolution and long insurgency respectively.

Strong people

Afghanistan's own history is testimony to the talents and skills of a sturdy and strong people who have the ability to bounce back from adversity. Historically, Afghanistan produced the most skilled diplomats known for pragmatism coupled with their pursuit of goals in a cool manner that facilitated compromise and agreement.

This trait was evident during the Bonn parleys, where nine days of negotiations ended nine years of conflict.

Afghanistan has also produced some of the most ferocious warriors in recent regional history, many of whom invaded and conquered India several times. And one of India's great builders who laid the basis for a modern transport, revenue, mail and administrative system was the 16th century Afghan ruler, Sher Shah Suri, who is remembered for providing innovative, good governance during his tenure of less than five years.

These talents can be put to good use during peacetime in Afghanistan.

Second, Afghanistan today after 23 years of internecine warfare is a de facto confederation of tribes, chieftains, ethnic groups and warlords, most if not all have found accommodation in the interim administration cobbled in Bonn. Kabul, the capital, is more a symbolic seat of authority today than the real source of power.

But there is one point that everyone, including Afghanistan's neighbours, agree: Afghanistan should be a unified state whose sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected. This is a good starting point for Afghanistan's journey from decades of revenge and retribution, to reconciliation and reconstruction.

Third, Afghanistan's strategic location can be conducive to dividends of peace in the form of aid from donors, trade with neighbours and a stable centre of gravity for the countries that surround this land-locked land.

Gateway to Central Asia

After all, Afghanistan is Central Asia's gateway to the Gulf. It is also Pakistan's gateway to Central Asia. Afghanistan is key to stability in China's neighbouring Xinjiang province, where the Muslim Uighur population resides.

Afghanistan is in the vicinity of Russia's 'near abroad', the former Central Asian republics. Going farther, Iran and Turkey have a cultural, political and economic influence through an affinity with Afghan ethnic and linguistic groups.

Likewise, Israel's biggest presence in the Muslim world is right next door in Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan.

Finally, Afghanistan is perceived as central to America's war against terrorism, and India too sees opportunities in post-Taliban Afghanistan.

The head of the Afghan interim administration, Hamid Karzai, underlined this unity in diversity through his inaugural address in Kabul on Dec 22 which was bilingual with Pashto and Darri, a variant of Farsi, which is the official language of Iran and Tajikistan.

His dress also reflected Afghanistan's mixed cultures. He wore an Uzbek flowing gown over the Pashtun long shirt and baggy trousers, adorned with a calfskin cap popular among Afghans of different nationalities.

But the most hopeful was Karzai's message that ''We should be first and foremost Afghans before belonging to any ethnic group.''