analysis

An estimated 30 percent of the Chinese Malaysian voters in Indera Kayangan are believed to have supported Keadilan in the recent by-election there while the remaining 70 percent opted for the winning party, MCA.

The Chinese voting trend has become a point of contention with varying claims being made by political parties both from the government and opposition since Barisan Nasional won the by-election on Jan 19 with a thumping majority of over 2,500 votes.

Immediately after the by-election, Keadilan said it got 35 percent of Chinese votes, up from the five percent it claimed it garnered three years ago in the 1999 general elections.

Meanwhile, the two rival factions in MCA gave different accounts on the Chinese voting trend.

Team A, led by party leader Dr Ling Liong Sik, argued that there had not been any erosion of Chinese support in the constituency, while Team B, led by his deputy Lim Ah Lek, claimed that about 500 Chinese voters had swung to the opposition.

According to a malaysiakini analysis of the by-election results, Chinese voter turnout was estimated to be 71 percent, while the turnout for Malay voters was higher at 83 percent.

Malaysiakini used Seberang Bakau where 93.1 percent of the electorate are Malays as an indicator on how Malays generally voted in Indera Kayangan.

The analysis showed that in Seberang Bakau, 62 percent of the Malays voted for MCA, while 38 percent voted for Keadilan.

Breakdown of results

By transcribing this 62:38 voting ratio to the three Chinese majority areas Pekan Lama Kangar, Pekan Baru Kangar and Pengkalan Assam our calculations show that Keadilan picked up 29.86 percent of the Chinese votes with the remaining going to MCA.

Pekan Lama Kangar has an electorate of which 85.5 percent are Chinese voters, Pekan Baru Kangar 71.6 percent and Pengkalan Assam, 58.1 percent. The remaining three areas in the Indera Kayangan state constituency Padang Katong, Derma and Ganding - are Malay majority areas.

According to the malaysiakini analysis, 71 Malay voters in Pekan Lama Kangar voted for MCA, 44 for Keadilan; Pengkalan Assam, 151 (MCA), 97 (Keadilan); and in Pekan Baru Kangar 261 (MCA) and 161 (Keadilan).

Leaving out the Malay votes, about 570 or 69 percent of the Chinese electorate in Pekan Lama Kangar, voted for MCA while the other 255 voted for Keadilan.

For Pengkalan Assam, about 151, or 68 percent, of the Chinese electorate voted for MCA and the remaining 97 voted for Keadilan. While in Pekan Baru Kangar, about 819, or 73 per cent, of the Chinese electorate voted for MCA, while 301 voted for Keadilan.

Carefully analysed

These figures, however, are not entirely accurate. They are based on a number of calculated assumptions including that how the Malays voted and their high turnout in Seberang Bakau were reflective elsewhere in Indera Kayangan and that the five percent of Indian voters can be discounted given its low number.

The swing of Chinese votes in the by-election had been carefully watched and analysed by observers given that BN had focused its Indera Kayangan campaign on linking the opposition to Afghanistan's Taliban.

DAP has argued that the Sept 11 terrorist attacks had spooked the non-Muslim community from backing the opposition BA alliance, a member of which is Muslim-based PAS which advocates the setting-up of an Islamic state.

It is also of interest to the contending factions in MCA. Team A would like to argue that the takeover of two Chinese dailies by it last ear has been endorsed by the Chinese community, while Team B which is against the deal would like to argue otherwise.

A conclusive reading of the Indera Kayangan results is impossible. Voting is secret and the ballot paper does not tell whether the voter is of a particular race, sex or age.

NASH RAHMAN is senior analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia

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