The general election is expected to be held early next year. The results will be as expected. Barisan Nasional (BN), through its main component party Umno, will win the required number of parliamentary seats to return to power with a two-third majority.

Even the opposition acknowledges this fact. But this does not mean that the elections will be an unexciting affair.

For one, there is bound to be thrills and spills in Kelantan and Terengganu.

In Kelantan, the position of the PAS government is hanging in the balance - as the party only has a single state seat majority.

In the 2004 elections, PAS retained its hold on Kelantan albeit with a razor-thin two seat majority, but this was reduced further when it lost in the Pengkalan Pasir by-election. As it stands now, PAS has 23 seats and BN, 22.

Although BN failed to wrest the state away from PAS in the last elections, the close results gave rise to the question of whether the people of Kelantan are desiring for a change in government?

The 'curse'

Or is there a more subtler force at work. Like a curse perhaps?

Rewind. PAS ruled Kelantan for 18 years before it lost the state to BN in 1978. After 12 years under BN, the state was once again captured by PAS in the 1990 general elections.

Come next year, it would be another 18 years that the Islamic-based party has controlled the state. Some are wondering if the '18-year curse' will repeat itself.

When this question was posed to several political observers, they said nothing is impossible in politics.

There could be an 18-year and 12-year cycle for PAS and BN respectively to rule the state or this could just be coincidental, noted the observers.

Based on the last election results, they said, it is quite possible that BN would reclaim the state in the coming polls.

Curses aside, they pointed out that the 'reality of things' in Kelantan will determine who will be victorious and who will be defeated.

'Phantom voters'

According to them, one interesting development is the huge increase in the number of voters in Kelantan and neighbouring Terengganu. This has led to the often-heard allegations of 'phantom voters'.

Who are these 'phantom voters'?

Some claim that they are outsiders who are registered as voters in Kelantan and will only show up when there is an election.

On the other hand, others claim that they are locals working in other states who return home to cast their ballots.

According to observers, both Umno and PAS have been stepping up their efforts to trace the locals outside of the state and convince them to return to Kelantan and register as voters there.

Could this be the 100,000 people which PAS has accused Umno of trying to bring into the state to win the elections?

In fact, the Election Commission revealed that some 200,000 locals have yet to register as voters in Kelantan.

Apart from this, there is also the allegation that these 'phantom voters' are Southern Thais with dual citizenship - Malaysia and Thailand.

With a Malaysian identity card, it makes it easy for them to come into Kelantan and vote without raising any suspicion.

Tomorrow: Can Umno reclaim Kelantan?