Dropping PAS a blessing in disguise?

Stephen NgPublished: Jun 9, 2015 8:00 AM | Updated: Jun 9, 2015 7:58 PM

COMMENT I beg to differ about Lim Kit Siang’s assertion that after dropping PAS, Pakatan Rakyat is ‘dead’. It could be a blessing in disguise and the DAP supremo could be wrong.

I know I may be speaking up against the logic of a veteran in politics, and after this, I will be getting brickbats from DAP.

Lim is another mere mortal, despite being a veteran in Malaysian politics, and is not necessarily always correct. Neither am I trying to outsmart him, but by now, Lim should realise that his decision to pull out of Barisan Alternatif was also the cause of the collapse of the opposition front.

As a result, in 2004, DAP lost nearly all the seats that it had contested. What a shame that we do not learn the lessons from the past! In retrospect, Lim should realise that whatever it takes, we, as a nation, are trending towards a change of federal government.

I hope, for once, that Lim ( photo ) will admit that his decision to pull out of Pakatan will have to be revised in the wake of a strong push by the people to change the federal government for once.

We did not succeed in the past two general elections, but we are prepared to stand up each time after we fall. A third or a fourth attempt may finally be the final tipping point, especially if Barisan Nasional does not change its style of government.

This is better than for the opposition coalition to go back to the square one and start building its momentum in another 10 years’ time.

It is my belief that the more Umno takes on the Mahathir Mohamad style of suppressing the opposition, the stronger will the people’s rejection of Umno become. The rule of the game is that no government that goes to ‘war’ with the people will be able to stand.

Leaders like Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi became icons to the world for their passive opposition which finally removed the regimes that persecuted them.

As I have always mentioned, I am not a politician, neither do I have the sophistication of tools used by the academics, but at least I speak from the heart as an ordinary man on the street; therefore, read this article with an open mind.

Sometimes, the ordinary man sees more things that the experts, with all their experience (not to mention their prejudices), the sophisticated tools and the statistics, fail to see.

What it appears to me is that the elder Lim is admitting that without PAS, Pakatan is as good as dead. In other words, PAS is the major reason for Pakatan’s success in the last two general elections.

Three-cornered fights

Analysts have said that, whenever there is a three-cornered fight between Barisan Nasional, Pakatan and a third party, it is always BN that has the advantage.

This may be true in cases such as Kota Damansara, where Umno won against the PSM candidate contesting on a PKR ticket in the last general election.

And the other examples given are Tenom, Cameron Highlands, Kota Marudu, Pensiangan, Keningau, Alor Setar, and Mas Gading. Six of these constituencies, mainly in Sabah, were won by BN, but in Alor Setar where the sentiments in the peninsula could be different, the seat was still won by PKR. This was despite the unhappiness with the PAS state government.

Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian, in his analysis , had shown that in a three-cornered fight, such as the Sabah-type of contests, BN has better chances of winning with less than 50 percent of the popular vote.

Ibrahim ( photo ) argued that the Malay vote would be split three-ways: Umno, PAS, and potentially PKR or another party.

However, in my opinion, this is not necessary the case. What it simply means is that in a constituency where PAS puts forward its candidate, the Malay votes will be split between the three parties.

This is not necessary good news for Umno, since the votes will now be fragmented. What may finally determine the outcome is the votes by the other non-Malay communities such as the Chinese and the Indians in the peninsula and the bumiputra Christians in East Malaysia, who have seen how Umno behaves itself with regard to the question of freedom of religion.

Assuming a constituency in the peninsula with 60 percent Malays, 30 percent Chinese and another 10 percent comprising Indians and other minority groups, then the Umno candidate may garner Malay votes (20 percent) and the other 10 percent votes from the Chinese and other races.

From the other 40 percent Malay votes, if Pakatan has the support of the Erdogans and PasMa, the scenario can always be to the advantage of the Pakatan component party.

Never underestimate the people’s sentiments; Erdogans like Mohamad Sabu (Mat Sabu), too, can contest under a PKR or DAP banner and still win.

There is no reason why it is impossible for PKR or DAP, for example, to garner 25 percent of the Malay votes with only 15 percent votes going to PAS’ ulama faction. All it takes is for the elder Lim to recognise the impossible, and soldier on!

As long as the other 30 percent of the non-Malay votes remain strong with Pakatan, there is always a chance of winning the constituency.

This is not taking into account that within Umno and those who left Umno, there is a group that may not be too happy with the current leadership.

We cannot discount the contribution by people like Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Zaid Ibrahim and even Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir that they too may rally behind Pakatan when the time comes.

Therefore, the split of Malay votes may work to the disadvantage of Umno, which explains why Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is trying to woo PAS.

In the weeks, if not months to come, we will see more ‘promises’ given to the Islamic party to try to lure it into its fold; and PAS’ president Abdul Hadi Awang’s true colours may show up when he decides to join the BN. This could be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back, especially for those who are still loyal to the late Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

Whatever it is, Pakatan has won in two general elections. Even the elder Lim agreed that in 2008, it was a political tsunami that he had never expected. I repeat, the elder Lim had never expected that Pakatan could take five states.

Because the people’s sentiments have swung towards the crucial need for a change of government after over half a century, Pakatan won five states in 2008. This is something that the DAP could never dream of being able to achieve on its own.

From a political tsunami, it may be a political earthquake the follows in the coming elections. No one will be able to predict it, but until Pakatan leaders soldier on, we can expect nothing but going back to square one.

When that happens, DAP could only expect to be thrashed again, if its leaders followed the decision to abandon Barisan Alternatif. I will not be surprised that PAS will suffer the same fate as DAP in 2004, after it is dropped from Pakatan.

It cannot choose to be in Pakatan. The decision is on the part of Pakatan’s leadership.

The Anwar factor

In all three general elections (1999, 2008 and 2013), the major factor in the swing of votes was Anwar Ibrahim.

The other major factors I believe are the people’s involvement in the Bersih rallies and Hindraf, and the way how the federal government had dealt with these rallies. Harsh treatment helped to shore up the people’s support towards the opposition.

In 1999, Anwar was jailed. The result of the 10th general election show that BN’s popularity vote dipped from 65 percent in 1995 to 56.5 percent (in 1998) which is comparable to only the 1964 results. By 1969, BN’s popularity votes were on the downward trend, to hit only 49.3 percent.

In February 2015, Anwar was again jailed. Many of us have seen the injustices done to one man. Anwar’s imprisonment is the only real ‘transformation’ that we can see to a former BN leader.

In the past, during my late father’s generation, there was too much suspicion between people of different races. However, with 57 years of Merdeka, and the efforts to build bridges between people of different communities, it is not easy for another repeat of May 13 to happen.

In the past, the Malays were generally poor, but now, the Malay and Umno elites are doing even better than the Chinese financially. The disparity exists between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ Malays. Umno can no longer play the race and religious cards with the same amount of success, or trying to blame DAP for the riots as it did with the 1969 riots.

The fear tactics no longer work. People have come to a point where they are saying enough is enough.

Corruption is also a major factor why the people are now in the mood of changing the government in order to see a balance of power between two coalitions. No matter how wretched Pakatan may be, it is necessary for us to bring about a change of government so that absolute power is not held by one party - Umno.

Coupled with the Goods and Services Taxes (GST) which was introduced by Umno and BN since April 1, the mood swing is enough to cause a real political earthquake that shakes Putrajaya and both Sabah and Sarawak come GE14.

If the political climate should follow the tsunami which hit the west coast of peninsular Malaysia (Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor), then a political earthquake may follow that hits parts of the country which was untouched by the tsunami.

Pray, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as the president of PKR representing Anwar, will rise and take charge of Pakatan until it takes over Putrajaya. If anything happens to Anwar while in prison, it will certainly give Pakatan a bigger boost.

The elder Lim and the others in Pakatan should not abandon the battleground midway, especially when the spirit of the late Karpal Singh will not rest until Putrajaya is taken!

STEPHEN NG is an ordinary citizen with an avid interest in following political developments in the country since 2008.

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