Will Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak survive a vote of no-confidence? That is a question political analysts can't seem to agree on.

On Tuesday, BN strategic communications director Abdul Rahman Dahlan said Najib will survive if a vote of no-confidence is called against him in Parliament when it reconvenes next month.

"You want to do a vote of no confidence, then by all means do it in Parliament.

"We will fight you and we will win. We are confident that we will win," Rahman had said.

Najib dared to table motion

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat ( photo ) dared Rahman to convince Najib to table the vote himself if he was so confident.

"The test of pudding is in the eating. Rahman could be right. If he believes in his own words, he should convince Najib to table a motion of confidence.

"If Najib does and wins the vote, he can stay," Wong told Malaysiakini .

Actually, Wong believes Najib will not win if a vote is taken.

"I think there are enough people in BN who want to oust Najib and 112 is not the magic number. Well, it sort of is, but it's not strictly necessary.

"It's a simple thing: as long as you have more people voting against him than those who vote for him, he will lose," he explained.

'Just refrain from voting'

It has been said that to successfully oust Najib, it would require 112 votes of no-confidence against him.

There are 87 opposition MPs and an independent, and even if all of them were to vote against the prime minister, 24 BN MPs would be needed to vote against Najib to reach the 112 votes.

According to Wong, that is not entirely true, because he believes a lot of people would simply refrain from voting.

As such, he clarified that the actual number of votes needed for the motion against Najib to be successful would be lower.

All of this is merely speculation, he reminded, because this has not been put to the test and everything is just academic.

'Other option not any better'

However, Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian ( photo ) said Rahman's confidence in Najib's survival might have some merit.

"It is very difficult for a no-confidence vote to be successful against Najib because the executive branch of government has a high concentration of power in hand," he said.

Hence, the prime minister would have many strategies to persuade dissenting MPs to change their minds.

Another thing that should be taken into consideration, Ibrahim pointed out, is that BN MPs would be hard-pressed to vote against their leader now.

"A lot depends on what they (the BN MPs) feel about their winnability in the future elections. Given that elections are still very far away, it's a bit hard to measure," he said.

Even if right now there are BN MPs who are wavering in their support for Najib on a personal level, he explained, they might still end up voting in favour of Najib for their own political reasons.

Ibrahim said the only way for BN MPs to vote against Najib would be if they felt there is no hope at all with their current leader, but this is not the case now.

On the contrary, he added, they would see ousting Najib now as being just as risky.

"It's not like their other option is any better. With the next general election so far away and the opposition being fractured, there is no reason for them to choose the other option," he said.

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