Kedah Umno deputy chief Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah's justification for the attempted coup against Menteri Besar Mukhriz Mahathir is not at all convincing, according to political analysts.

Former USM political science professor Ahmad Atory Hussain said the four reasons given by Ahmad Bashah to explain Kedah Umno's lack of confidence in Mukhriz were disputable and unclear.

"And when the reasons are not solid, things turn haywire," Ahmad Atory told Malaysiakini .

He compared the Kedah political crisis with the Terengganu crisis of 2014, when then menteri besar Ahmad Said was dropped.

There were strong reasons for Ahmad to be replaced, he said, because it involved state governance.

"The way Ahmad Bashah put forth these reasons are also questionable. If it was written in an essay (by a university student), I would have given him a C-," Ahmad Atory quipped.

'BN could lose Kedah over this'

Ahmad Bashah sparked off an open war against Mukhriz yesterday, declared at a press conference that the Kedah Umno rank and file no longer have faith in Mukhriz leading the state.

The four reasons he cited were Mukhriz's failure to unite Kedah Umno, poor strategic planning for the 14th general election, failure to mobilise and lead the party machinery and inability to govern the state.

Ahmad Bashah then urged Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to intervene and replace Mukhriz with someone else.

Ahmad Atory said if the Umno president does not handle the issue carefully, it could lead to further erosion of public trust in Umno in the northern state.

He said BN could even lose Kedah in the 14th general election as it now only commands a majority of six seats in the state assembly.

"We may even see a PAS menteri besar," he said.

"So I suggest Najib defers any plans to intervene in this matter and focuses on the general election instead.

"Don't be too hasty in making any public statements on it. Be patient or Kedah may fall to the opposing party," Ahmad Atory warned.

The academician said BN's tenuous position in Kedah could also be replicated in Johor, driven by similar splits in Umno.

'Opposition disarray saving BN's hide'

In weighing his options, Najib must not underestimate his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin and vice-president Shafie Apdal, as well as Mukhriz’s grassroots influence, political analyst Jeniri Amir said.

Jeniri ( photo ) said the trio could undermine Umno's standing in three states – Kedah, Johor and Sabah.

Muhyiddin and Shafie have been sidelined in Umno after they were dropped from cabinet last year, but both still hold their party posts.

In such a situation, Jeniri said, the BN could still win the next general election but Najib's performance would be poorer.

"History may repeat itself – and Najib may be asked to resign, like Pak Lah (fifth prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi).

"Umno is in a shoddy state and things are not looking up. It needs to avoid any more state-level conflicts and fissures or risk losing more seats," he added.

However, the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak lecturer added, the silver lining for BN is that the opposition parties are not on solid ground.

"BN is lucky that the opposition coalition is heading into a headlong conflict and is not looking any better. If the opposition coalition is united, the BN would be in a very desperate position.

"The situation with the opposition is the one that is saving BN. But then, we might still have two years to go (before the next general election) and anything can happen," Jeniri said.

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