Analysts: Dr M's 'Shafie gambit' likely to hurt Harapan more than PN

Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's push to have Warisan president Shafie Apdal become the prime ministerial candidate for Pakatan Harapan allies has a long shot for success but is more likely to deepen division within the coalition.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the proposal, apart from offering an alternative to the impasse between Mahathir and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, may be to court support from the East Malaysia bloc but ultimately, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) still holds the chips.

“Whether it is Mahathir, (PKR president) Anwar or Shafie, the determinant is not any of them, but the last bloc that tips the balance, most likely GPS.

“If GPS does not join, whoever wins the fight as Harapan Plus prime ministerial candidate is still getting an empty title,” Wong said when contacted by Malaysiakini today.

However, GPS is unlikely to switch its support from the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government to the Harapan coalition and its allies, even with the suggestion of Shafie as the prime ministerial candidate.

“The real question is what can Harapan Plus give to GPS that PN cannot match? More ministerial posts? Sarawak Harapan stays out of state elections?

“One inconvenience for Harapan Plus is that they cannot offer the position of deputy prime minister to Sarawak because that will make Fadillah Yusof, who is the most senior GPS MP, more senior than his boss, (Sarawak Chief Minister) Abang Johari Openg,” Wong (photo) said.

Without the support of GPS, the prime ministerial candidate will only be an empty title, he added.

With Shafie as prime minister, Sabah and Sarawak may advance their shared interest on the Malaysian Agreement 1963 (MA63) but it will still put GPS behind the other parties in Harapan Plus, including DAP.

Sarawak-based analyst Jeniri Amir said GPS is unlikely to ever cooperate with Harapan as long as DAP is in the picture.

“It (Shafie as a prime ministerial candidate) is propaganda, a bid for (Mahathir) to attract Sabah and Sarawak politicians.

“Do you think the politicians here will be impressed by this kind of sentiment? I don’t think GPS is going to be easily swayed by that kind of statement.

“So long as DAP is in the formula, I do not think GPS is going to support them,” Jeniri told Malaysiakini.

GPS has 18 seats in Parliament and can be considered as a "kingmaker", as the current PN administration only has a razor-thin majority of three MPs.

However, amid Harapan’s claims that they have sufficient numbers to form a simple majority government, GPS has also consistently maintained that they are still in support of the PN government led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. 

It is also highly unlikely for PKR to accept Shafie (photo) as the prime ministerial candidate.

Despite Anwar struggling to garner enough support in the Dewan Rakyat, especially from the East Malaysia bloc, PKR has remained firm in its stand that it will only accept Anwar as the prime ministerial candidate.

“To Anwar, I think it is an embarrassment to him if he accepts this, a slap to his face. I do not think his supporters will agree with this.

“He is in a dilemma, a Catch-22 situation,” Jeniri said.

Mahathir had announced yesterday that the suggestion for Shafie to be Harapan Plus’ prime ministerial candidate has the support of DAP, Amanah and Warisan. 

But shortly after his announcement, DAP and Amanah released a joint statement saying that the proposal still needs to be discussed internally by DAP, Amanah and Pakatan Harapan. 

Universiti Utara Malaysia professor Rusdi Omar said this proposal should have been discussed at the table by Harapan Plus before Mahathir decided to announce it.

“He cannot use his veto power to make this decision… so for me, I think it is not a wise move for Mahathir to make this decision his way because it will further muddy up the relationship within Harapan,” he said.

With Mahathir’s latest announcement on Shafie as well as his stalling for time for the power transition when Harapan was still in power, it appears that the nonagenarian is insistent on not allowing Anwar to become prime minister, he added.

Universiti Putra Malaysia professor Jayum Jawan Empaling agreed with this sentiment, adding that PKR seems to have learnt its lesson.

“PKR’s decision to insist on Anwar (as the prime ministerial candidate) and not let Mahathir hold onto the position for another six months is the right move because PKR has learnt from its mistakes and if (Mahathir) is given another six months, perhaps the same thing will happen again,” he said.

Jayum said Mahathir likely switched to Shafie as the prime ministerial candidate after PKR remained firm in wanting Anwar as the candidate instead.

“This is an unreasonable suggestion by Mahathir and it seems like it is only meant to create conflict within the Harapan coalition,” he added.

Warisan currently only has nine MPs in the Dewan Rakyat, which Jayum said would make Shafie a “minority leader” if he were to become the prime minister.

Bigger parties in the coalition are not likely to sit quietly and take orders from a prime minister who is a minority leader, as is the case now with Muhyiddin, he said.

“The example now is the PN government under Muhyiddin leadership, who is seen as being forced to listen to Umno because Umno brings more to the table in the (PN) coalition.

“It is not reasonable to have a minority leader. Even though I am from Sabah and Sarawak and I should be proud but I am not because this doesn’t have any basis,” Jayum said.

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