Bad weather, ebbing 'anti-BN wave' ill tidings for Harapan in Pontian

GE15 | In 2018, the “political tsunami” that unseated many BN candidates from Johor to Kedah triggered its historic defeat and almost saw Umno’s Ahmad Maslan swept away from Pontian as well.

However, when Malaysiakini visited Pontian a few days ago, that wave of anger against BN appears to have shrunk to a mere ripple.

Worst yet for Pakatan Harapan, a heavy downpour or floods on election day may force some of their supporters to stay home, further dampening any chances of seizing the marginal seat which Ahmad held on to with just an 833-vote majority in the last general election.

One voter who will be staying home if the weather turns for the worst is a 70-year-old who wished to be known as Madam Lee.

“If it rains on polling day, then I will not go out. My husband has Parkinsons, so it is not good for him.

“You are from Malaysiakini? I read you every day, I read the news every day and I hope I will be able to go out and vote,” she said when met at a local coffee shop.

Such sentiments and external factors could sink Johor Harapan’s target for at least a 75 percent voter turnout.

But for DAP’s Pontian candidate Shazwan Zdainal Abidin - it is something beyond the control of any political party.

“We can't force people to come out and vote. But at least we can try our best to encourage them,” the Batu Pahat native said in an interview on day six of campaigning.

Pontian is one of three Malay-majority seats in Johor where DAP has fielded a Malay candidate, after a last-minute agreement reached with PKR - which gave Shazwan less than 24 hours to accept the challenge.

Shazwan, a staff at DAP’s Penggaram assemblyperson Gan Peck Cheng’s service centre, said he was initially preparing to assist other DAP GE15 candidates, particularly Johor DAP deputy chairperson Sheikh Omar Bagharib Ali in Ayer Hitam.

“So when I was informed that I had been chosen by the party as a candidate, I did not know what to tell him (Sheikh Omar),” he said.

The eleventh-hour seat swap appears to have hampered Harapan’s campaigning in Pontian, where there has been a smaller number of major ceramah and party flags seen in the area covering two state seats - Pulai Sebatang and Benut - held by BN’s Hasrunizah Hassan and Johor BN chief Hasni Mohammad respectively.

Wave turns to ripples

Shazwan admitted that ongoing voter fatigue since prior to the March state polls had also impacted support for Harapan’s campaigns.

But while he has not spotted a giant wave of change like in 2018 - the Harapan hopeful said the calmer political waters do not mean BN’s Ahmad is safe.

“For this general election I don’t feel that (same) wave to reject BN (as a whole) but there is a wave of youths wanting to see change and giving an opportunity to young candidates.

“Now in Pontian, we have smaller ripples. Pontian has its own game. There is a narrative to reject Ahmad.

“I was told there are a number of Umno supporters who do not want him,” he said.

At 38 years old, Shazwan is the youngest among four candidates in Pontian, and sees himself as a beneficiary of such sentiments.

Of the constituency’s 75,212 registered voters, 47.91 percent are below the age of 40 - and Harapan is keen to get those living outside Pontian to return on Nov 19.

“We have several ways to convince the youth to come back and vote, and we are already doing that.

“This is only the first week of campaigning, InsyaAllah by the second week we will see a better response,” he said.

Shazwan added that Pontian’s youth voters comprised a substantial number of “fence sitters” who may not resonate with a larger “anti-DAP” sentiment propagated by the party’s opponents from BN, Perikatan Nasional (PN) and others, including during the GE15 campaign trail.

False DAP narrative

PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin and the coalition’s top leaders including PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had, among others, repeated claims of DAP’s alleged “communist” ties and purported attempts to undermine constitutional provisions on the rights of Malays and Muslims.

Hadi also expressed concern over more Malay candidates contesting on the DAP ticket this general election, citing fear they are being used to win Malay-Muslim votes.

BN’s prime minister candidate Ismail Sabri Yaakob, meanwhile, said voters should not be fooled by DAP’s Malay candidates.

For Shazwan, it is a welcome challenge, adding that fielding him in a seat like Pontian instead of a safe seat could help weaken a false narrative that “Malays reject DAP”.

“If I can win here, that proves how a Malay DAP candidate can win in a Malay-majority seat. If I were to contest in a Chinese-dominated area instead, then this narrative will never end,” he said.

Aside from Shazwan and Sheikh Omar, Johor DAP fielded 29-year-old Fatin Zulaikha Zaidi in Mersing - up against BN, PN, Pejuang and an independent in the Umno stronghold.

Back in Pontian, Shazwan is also facing PN’s Isa Abdul Hamid, and Pejuang’s Jamaluddin Mohamad.

BN sees Pontian as ‘white’

BN is confident, however, that it can retain Pontian and even come out stronger.

Previously, Pulai Sebatang assemblyperson Hasrunizah said Ahmad's track record as a three-term MP is enough to keep the seat "white" or firmly with BN, on top of riding a momentum which saw BN forming the Johor state government with 40 out of 56 seats.

BN’s major victory in the March state polls was despite winning just 43 percent of the popular vote.

While total turnout in the state election was almost the same as in 2018 - around 1.5 million - Pontian was one of several south constituencies where fewer votes were cast.

In Pulai Sebatang, there were around 3,600 fewer votes in March compared to 2018, while the number of votes in Benut was almost the same in both elections.

This does not take into account the increase in almost 20,000 voters registered after GE14 and also due to Undi18 and automatic voter registration.

However, there is no guarantee that those registered automatically will turn up to vote, or will stay home due to disinterest in the political process.

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