BN and Umno's narrative going into the Johor polls is that the coalition is strong because it won a supermajority during the last state election in March 2022.

However, the reality is quite different. An analysis of election data showed that if the Johor state polls had occurred concurrently with the 15th general election in November 2022, BN would not even be in the state government.

This analysis, based on data from...