Mersing MP brings morale boost despite Bersatu suspension

JOHOR POLLS | Mersing MP Islahuddin Abas has earned praise from a Bersatu candidate for helping Perikatan Nasional's campaign in the Johor state election despite his party's suspension.

According to Amerul Muhamad, who is contesting the Tenggaroh state seat, Islahuddin's (above) presence on PN's campaign trails for Tenggaroh and Endau has given the coalition a morale boost as they face an uphill battle against BN.

The Bersatu disciplinary board had on May 11 suspended Islahuddin's party membership for two party election terms.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, the candidate said Islahuddin did not let his status in Bersatu affect his commitment to the party.

"Immediately after Parliament adjourns, Islahuddin will rush back to Mersing, where he will join campaign activities in Tenggaroh in the morning before moving to assist the candidate in the Endau state seat in the afternoon," Amerul said.

He claimed that support from PAS' campaign machinery throughout the campaign period further reinforced Islahuddin's strong commitment.

On June 26, however, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said the party’s machinery would not mobilise assistance for Bersatu candidates’ campaigns, and would instead focus only on the 11 seats contested by the Islamist party.

In response, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin said that the party accepts PAS’ decision not to assist its campaign in the Johor election with an open heart, but stressed that his party is willing to assist the Islamist party if the need arises.

High stakes

Amerul, who is also Bersatu Youth’s permanent chairperson, is contesting against Yusof Dawam from Pakatan Harapan and Mersing Umno division chief Youzaimi Yusof.

The contest in Tenggaroh this time is seen as more interesting after Umno decided to contest the seat for the first time in 40 years.

The Tenggaroh state constituency has a voter composition of 83.4 percent Malays, followed by 12.8 percent Chinese, 1.4 percent Indians, and two percent from other communities.

The seat had previously been a traditional BN stronghold and has been held by MIC since 1986.

READ MORE: MIC steps out of comfort zone with urban push in Johor polls

Amerul said he sees the change as an opportunity for PN to grab Tenggaroh, particularly after the gap in support between BN and PN narrowed in the previous two elections.

Voter turnout

According to Amerul, who hails from Felda Tenggaroh, the Felda areas can no longer be considered a safe deposit for BN due to shifting support among younger voters.

However, he acknowledged that voter turnout would be the deciding factor in whether PN could win the seat.

"If turnout is around 60 percent, I see PN having a strong chance of winning.

"However, if voter turnout is low, it will benefit BN because only their traditional supporters are likely to turn out, similar to the scenario after the Covid-19 pandemic (in 2022 election),” he said.

Amerul also believed that PN now has a better chance as there is an increasing number of Felda youths returning to live in Tenggaroh to care for their ageing parents.

He said this development can be a game changer and possibly favour PN in the polls.

"During my (campaign) visits, I found that many of the younger generation of Felda settlers have returned to Tenggaroh.

"It is not because they do not have job opportunities in the cities, but due to their parents’ health conditions. There were several homes I visited where the children worked in Kuala Lumpur, but eventually returned because there was no one to take care of their parents. So these people are bringing their votes back.

"There are also outstation voters who may return, and right now they are assessing which party they should vote for," he added.

BN’s seat to defend

In the 2022 Johor state election, BN candidate K Raven Kumar managed to defend the Tenggaroh seat after securing 49.16 percent of the vote.

At the time, PN candidate Roslan Nikmat from PAS mounted a strong challenge by obtaining 42.8 percent of the votes.

BN’s victory with a majority of 1,356 votes at that time, was also influenced by the low voter turnout of around 57.2 percent.

However, in the 15th general election, BN’s popular vote through Umno dropped to 45.86 percent.

Bersatu, representing PN, further narrowed the gap by securing 39.89 percent of the vote, indicating that support for the coalition has increasingly penetrated BN’s traditional strongholds in Felda areas.

PAS-BN electoral play in 23 seats faces Bersatu wildcard

'Rational' voters will return BN as Johor govt - Ismail Sabri

Umno must lose seats to change, but PN ready to form coalition Johor govt, says youth chief

With PAS snub, can Bersatu mobilise supporters in Pagoh to win Bukit Pasir?

Omens, signals and calculus in battle for Johor